Winter 2012-13 Long Range Weather Forecast W Yorks UK and Yonder

bigfreezesunset astrometeorology

WINTER 2012-2013

GENERAL THEME WINTER 2012-2013

Nearly two years ago, during Feb 2011, Ken Paone, a very skilful US astro-meteorologist asked me to take a look ahead at this UK winter to see what I could forecast very long range. I took a look at the chart for our UK region and beyond, and came up with this forecast which has been featured on his website:- http://theweatheralternative.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=UK+Winter+2012-2013

See this link showing that the very long range prediction for snow for October 2012, posted Feb 2011 on Ken’s site, has already come true by 25th October 2012 for Northumberland:- http://travel.aol.co.uk/2012/10/26/snow-england-october-2012-weather-arctic-blast/ Not bad to say I forecast that nearly two years ago using time honoured astro met techniques, on a limited budget without access to trillions of pounds worth of satellite dishes:-)

That forecast posted on Ken’s website will continue to manifest, though clearly the floods I foretold that Saturn would bring have already broken out across the UK with Scorpionic vengeance, as I expected, leaving the ground very soggy, with landslides to some southern areas especially, even before the Winter begins in full.

We can expect higher range of levels of snow for the season, and extremely frosty, freezing, temps will be around in January and February with strong northerlies keeping them bitingly chilling when they blow.

I expect blizzards, high speed winds and gales raging around the UK centring around 27th Jan-3rd Feb depending on which part of the UK you live. 5th-11th January also looks lively!
3rd Feb -10th Feb sees some freaky weather arrive, to keep global warming theories alive and well, with fogs, mists and unusually warm micro pockets of weather migrating eastwards forming off the west coast of Ireland, but one of the regions I’ll be tracking at this phase is 170 E and 51N regions where some turbulence looks to be causing headlines. This could be landslides like the ones hitting headlines currently (November 2012–and note in my forecast for Ken Paone 2 yrs ago nearly, I sadi to expect seismic and bad weather for this month)) in Japan where a tunnel collapsed due to unusual weather systems there. I also expect aquatic life to be under threat more than ever due to this freaky weather system and seismic/volcanic activity could add to the mix.

Perigee moons for 10th January and 7th February have a tendency to bring in hurricanes to the northern hemisphere during winter, so says weather expert Ken Ring in NZ, and the 10th January perigee coincides with a powerful NM making it a powerful syszgy/supermoon that can create high turbulence in the atmosphere, so watch hurricane headlines break out along with the extremes of stormy weather. The 3rd-10th Feb or beyond, depending on where you are located, also brings more wild weather in the northern hemisphere. This is going to be spectacular watching for all of us weather freaks.

Looking back at temps for the past 100 yrs 2013 looks like competing successfully with 1979 range of minima temps set at -23.5 for Feb 1979, and 14th Jan 1979 and -24.6 13th Jan 1979 and -16.5 19th March 1979, so track the low temps expected for this season to see how they score against these. My forecast for coldest conditions arriving is for freezing cold 22nd Jan to the end of the month, bringing in snow, ice, frost and big freeze, and another very cold spell from 17th Feb for a week approx with hail, sleet and snow, 17th March for a few days also brings in coldest weather for the month.

Spring breaks through in style in March (see forecast for the month below) and it finally settles in after 23rd, but I expect drier conditions to break through after 14th heralding a drought phase visiting us for the Spring season.
20th December -28th 2012

It’s Christmas so you’ll want to know if it will be a white one. I don’t expect so for us, though I’m not discounting one for you if you live on the Scottish Highlands to NW of Scotland, or high up on the Pennines and other peaks where it can lie around for months after it has left the rest of us alone. However, Jonathan Powell says it will snow for Christmas in a November issue of the Express online which may still be accessible at :- http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/359493/Odds-are-on-a-White-Christmas

Variable conditions ranging from wet to cool and dry. Icy winter showers moving east after high precipitation from previous days raise levels of water masses, causing some flood outbursts.

Normally we could expect clearer skies mid day to midnight generally. Expect some icy winter showers leaving treacherous conditions to some highways with flood for some UK areas potentially NW Scotland and Wales along with snow news arriving fro higher altitudes Temps get colder to freeze by 29th……affecting air travel with mists and fogs affecting midlands and southern region from 21st.

Only 75% confident of this phase forecast. Normally I expect above 80% accuracy for my long range predictions.

20th Sudden icy showers, sleet frost and snow combine by evening 4-6pm some sun with cloud during the day.

21st Brisk breezes cold drier outlook sunshine around, evening skies clearer, solstice today, so very hot in Australia, not so for us!

22nd Cloudy start, fast sudden showery outbreaks around 8-10 am bright outlook for the afternoon. Potential for mists and mizzles or even freezing fog in some localities in our region late eve.

23rd Damp air predominates, sun with cloud preventing temps being too biting, southerlies in lower atmosphere with northerlies in higher strata. Temperate conditions prevail for us and this could out to be a serene day….

24th showery outbreaks expected app 4-7pm and again 8-11pm, daytime sun with cloud.

25th Cloudy or misty start, dampness heavy, sudden showery outbursts by evening .Humidity high breeding possibility of mists and fog with likelihood of sudden showery outbursts or mizzles 3-6pm.

26th Sunshine with showery outburst, but these could be wetter to southern areas, here any likely outbursts likely 12 -2am.

27th Milder conditions, sunshine with cloud during the day less unsettled than previous days. Cloud around on 27th, overnight cloud keeps temps less icy. 28th similar
29th Dec winter showers, dark air with wet cloudy outlook

Full Moon 28th Dec-5th Jan 2013.

An overview for this weather phase, rather than a day to day tour. Some spells of serene conditions for the first part of the phase, sunny during the day, though frosty starts could greet the day, some mild outbursts of showers could also arrive.
I expect colder conditions to arrive 3 days into this phase when it will be mostly cold, mainly dry with sunshine during the day for the most part, the cold starts to be noticeable by 31st with freezing over of watery areas by 3rd.
We will see some brisk breeziness with the lower temps, especially on very high ground, some mists around watering places also likely.

3rd brings some blustery and bleak conditions with penetrating cold, stratus clouds around, and isolated strong gusts on high ground. 4th-5th can bring in milder conditions dry and sunny.

5th-11th January 2013

My expert colleague in weather forecasting, Ken Ring NZ, says we can expect more snow when the New Moon is perigee, and on 10th the perigee moon culminates whilst on 11th it renews itself so lets see if he is right, but I do expect this to hit Scotland to NW and hopefully fizzle out by the time this weather system gets down as far as W Yorks. We can expect some hail, sleet and snow around the UK during this phase

Previous phases of this weather brought strong winds to the UK, extremes of weather around the world and Scotland is usually the target for the worst of the weather for this outlook. Oddly there is a drought and rising temp indicator 4th-5th for regions such as Dublin, and SW areas of UK such as Landsend Pemboke and Caernarvon, but most places should enjoy a dry if windy outlook till 6-7th. Some snow looks to be developing off the far NW area of Scotland and this could move down from NW coast of Scotland and land in the form of
blizzards during this phase, most likely 6- 7th, causing disruption to transport systems, but destructive lowland storms are heralded by 6-7th for many parts of the UK. High speed winds will hit NW UK and western extremes of Wales/England so take care.

5th looks like a mild clear day with fresh air and scattered clouds around. 6th sees an unsettled outlook developing for us with variable temps and some easterlies bringing in potential for some showery conditions, lowering temps before northerlies begin to blow. For us in W Yorks the worst of the winter precipitation arrives by mid day on 7th and looks prolonged lasting into 8th combining with some of the destructive windy storms hitting lowlands.

Generally the weather is less fraught midnight to mid day, but this is a record breaking system coming over so hold onto your hammocks…..

11th-18th January

Mists fogs and freezing fogs arrive particularly to east coast of UK from the outset. A cold front skulking down offshore west coast takes it time to move across mainland Britain this phase, with temps becoming very biting as the days go by. Don’t forget to re read my winter intro for more about this time of winter…..

!1th sees a gloomy overcast if not foggy start for us, with clearer conditions developing by mid day when sunshine will brighten the outlook a little, but cold temps around, it may be that the fog I’m seeing is beginning to turn to freezing

12th Is cold but nice during the day with a clear sky by late evening auguring cold temps developing further overnight due to less cloud cover to keep things warm, this can bring in intense cold conditions and frosts as well as icy outlook so take care on roads.

13th could be some winter showers around, localised but I don’t expect them to be prolonged, another fair outlook for the afternoon by 14th after a potential for a showery morning, but the precipitation will be icy and exhilarating rather than oppressive.
15th looks the same as previous days but coldness intensifying, whilst 16th- 18th the weather gets intensely colder but this brings some sunshine along with cloud and frostiness some mists to valleys likely also, 18th potential for showers around evening but these will be fast, perhaps hail sleet type, very cold conditions continue for 18th, but sunshine should prevail during daytime.

18th-27th January 2013
Overview is for cold frosty and snow to the west and very wintry with the second half being even more frosty and icy but some sunshine around. 25th breaks the mould with some dark, dank weather

18th Outlook variable, Snow potential around mid day, cold temps with some sunshine during the day, cloudy late evening possible mist around water areas, temps freezing overnight into 19th

19th Freeze after thaw during mid day very cold temps icy air with gusty breezes.

20th no change
21 Heavy frost, a cold start, milder as sun gets strong by mid day, fogs/ mists around for evening
22nd very cold temps, sunshine around, but northerlies keep things cool
23rd Fine day, strong northerlies, blizzard potential to some high regions
24th Quick showery outbreaks after mid day likely, but another fine winter day with some sunshine, but cold temps.
25th Winter outburst of hail, sleet and snow before sunrise, very cold and frosty, cloudiness and lower temps with broody easterlies with precipitation keeping things cold.
26th-27th A mostly fine winter day outlook for both days…

27th Jan-3rd Feb

This seems to be an eventful weather phase with a lot of changes coming in mid way.
Seismic outlook –southern Ireland potential location.
Some sunshine expected for this phase, where the Full Moon usually augurs dry, exceedingly breathtakingly cold days with frosty nights, if no clouds form. Some mists can form around water places due to the intense cold gathering there and clashing with whatever mildness may have been formed by suns rays.
Some unsettled weather comes over for the milder temperature second half so make the most of the colder first part of the phase! I also expect snow to fall by 1-2nd

27th Some spartan outbreaks could arrive 2pm and 10pm approx, not a lot if any to be honest for us, but apart from these just expect some sun to be around as well as some whistles down the wind
28th North winds blow in higher altitudes whilst a fair start can become cloudy but the afternoon looks sunny with evening skies brighter by 4pm onwards Some rain could be moving southwards late night to turn of next day, but I don’t expect us to get any here.
29th Dry very cold day with nippy temps and gusty weather
30th similar to yesterday but more cloud around with winds getting stronger and gustier. Temps more moderate during the day but the winds keep it low for the evening and some snow warnings could be in place.
31st Extremely strong high speed wind, gales and winter blizzards expected today and tomorrow so take care across high places such as the Pennines and mountain roads. Milder temps can bring in some thawing, but also some snow in with the blizzards. More settled outlook by late at night and snow I forecast could just be frost…don’t think so…
1st Prolonged winter showers expected today, heavier to the south of England, with water levels rising on waterways such as lakes and rivers, slowly moving northwards in flow, some snow sleet in the mix, and we get some of this at our end of the country……
2nd Very unsettled gloomy outlook with rain, snow and sleet expected from early on, could even be a continuance of yesterdays winter downfall……winds still around but subsiding on former strengths. Clouds forming and mists and mizzles feature.
3rd Not a good outlook cloudy and gloomy mists and mizzles but milder winter temps…….read on>>>>>>

3rd-10th Feb
Some fantastic weather fun to witness for this phase and I shall be watching carefully to see how well I got a grip on these influences and communicated them to you.

Some very freaky micros stealing across 60 or so miles out to western seaboard of Ireland which means they will slowly move over to our part of the world bringing in some weird and whacky weather to some localities with some higher than normal winter fronts, whist others will be encountering continuing winter conditions.

High humidity expected with fogs and mists affecting sea and air travel especially over the Atlantic, thank goodness the Titanic isn’t setting sail now….

Unusual sea conditions mean sea life is exposed to some abnormal weather, fatal for some, and perhaps we’ll read stories of unusual levels of shoals of dead fish and threat to sea life and aquatic creatures, surfacing around this time of the season, which is what can happen when waters get too cold for them to survive.

Land masses 170east longitude and 50-51 north approx are to be watched for the headlines of unusually freak conditions prevailing.

Migrating warm pockets of weather mingle with some cold conditions, so freeze and thaw combine to make for some treacherous outcomes on transport routes. Landslides, floods and mudslides can be expected to arise adding to the excitement. To be fair if my global peers get their weather forecasts wrong due to some poor forecasting on a persistent basis then I might consider there is such a theory as global warming after all…………………………………….meanwhile they all manage to outforecast the mets delivering long range forecasts, using time honoured traditions used by our ancient mariners and without access to trillions of pounds worth of satellites……

A very mild front off the west of UK, Ireland regions, is difficult to track as tiny micros form and move eastwards, bringing in exceptional moist conditions with fogs, mist, localised thunderstorms and low visibility across much of the UK in the days ahead. Seismicity still high as well for our region of the globe.

3rd…wetter than wet can be and no chance of any drying out as air will be wet even if it does stop raining; high humidity rules. Stormy conditions move east, perhaps drifting southwards. Mists, mizzles and fog with all kinds of weather creatures scurrying around…..Any snow left lying around will thaw leaving floods to river plains and pouring onto transport routes for some regions, but not ours.

If you have booked a flight across the Atlantic for this week….oh dear……A lot of nebulous freaky warm pockets of air shield some from the colder front following on behind from west to east…betya you get delayed…

4th Fog freeze and thaw and freeze and fogs, enormously damp in the atmosphere.

5th Snow potential for high lying areas to west of us– Pennines and Welsh mountains, Cloudy wet day with lowering temps and easterlies keeping things dull and broody…get lots of indoor activities for the children for this phase..

6th sunshine around between cloudy spells, cloudier by evening, milder temps during the day colder, frosty and misty by evening with fogs likely.

7th Moon perigee so bad weather to some parts of globe around this date. Very wet day generally in our part of the world, with much precipitation reaching us by evening. Early on before sunrise a brighter sky for some belies the fogs in some low lying areas. Variable winds around moving clouds along and penetrating the mistiness.

8th Just when you thought Spring might be coming, it gets colder…..don’t throw the winter gloves away just yet! Some turbulence wind wise with whippy westerlies nipping exposed noses and fingers, some hail potential but some sunshine around as well.

9th Snow or frost around, breezy conditions especially at higher altitudes such as the moors and Pennines. Sun with cloud by afternoon very cold by evening. Some strong northerlies set sail to try clear up the mess of previous days………..

10th Clouds around icy, icy, icy, but you might be in one of those little milder micros that still hover around valleys….lucky you. Even colder tomorrow for some but read on>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I’m not ruling out snow from 9-10th overnight and my maps show this potential coming up from SW regions with some electrical outbursts bringing in some localised showers and snow showers. Carry on reading for more fun with the weather>>>>

!0th -17th Feb

There are three lots of data agreeing stormy patterns operative in maps for this phase and it does look likely to be winter snow storms that bring in some extreme winter conditions to contend with from the outset, potentially from 9-10th overnight, with 10th looking decidedly stormy from the start, over to the south west region of England but moving northwards, regions around Landsend and Stornaway affected by this system At the same time a weather pattern far off NW Scotland is likely to drift south westwards over the course of this phase.

This phase is very cold, gets colder with icing over expected and I do expect snow for this forecast, rather than just thick frost………………………hopefully I’m wrong and it will just be cold frosty and icy……………………………My money is on snow…..Patterns in this chart herald heavier precip if not more stormy outlook to Cumbria region. Whenever Mars occupies a certain position in my maps it hits Cumbria. Still, it is a dramatic part of the world and all that weather creates some fabulous scenery up there, now we wouldn’t want that to change would we…..? In fact last year with these chart patterns we got an intense cold front coming in from Russia, and this will repeat the pattern this phase with very icy lows enveloping everyone as it descends from the frozen north…….

10th Some lively north westerlies will accompany snow, some sun amidst cloud today

11th S Easterlies around, also snow bringing, at start of today, with very icy conditions freezing everything over creating some treachery on pathways and routes by night time when low temps very acute.

12th Sun with cloud during the day, temps remain acutely cold, it could be fairer to the north of us, a drier outlook but some flurries around in localised areas brief but to the point by evening.

13th Some brief hail sleet or snow around mid day, still very cold. A finer outlook by the afternoon but by late evening I’m not ruling out another snowy outburst

14th Windy outlook,cloudy with some drying localised sun spells Quick showery flurries, with fogs and mists prevailing late evening.

15th Snow to hit western shores today, cloudy misty start for us, but clearer conditions as day progresses with some exhilarating air.

16th Snow or frost around before sunrise, clouds/mists around 7-9am. Sunny outlook during the daytime with some cloud and gusts around, frosty temps.

17th…drier but still cold……………….

17th – 25th Feb

Temps get icier by 19th, fogs and mists around as a result, precipitation intense to NW UK regions with drains and underwater caverns under assault unable to cope with amounts of water.20th sees heavy precipitation arrive for this phase, with ice crystals forming from 19th in higher atmosphere.

17th frosts around to start the day and some localised mists with potential snow or winter showers mid day, but some sunshine around also during the daytime.

18th Milder outlook, unsettled though with breeziness, some quick showery outbursts in the morning, sun with cloud around, breeding eastward cold flows with snow potential.

19th Very icy conditions could be freezing fogs and mists around, snow showers possible after mid day.

20th Very heavy showers especially heavy to the south by mid day, prolonged and breezes helping move the system northwards.

21st Mists and cloudy start, sun spells by mid day, icy temps by evening with frost, with clearer skies

22nd Sun should be out by mid day some cloud forming by evening, temps still freezing
23rd Winter showers before sunrise clearer outlook by mid day, cloud around by evening, southerlies active.
24th Fog or misty start some snow and showery outbursts could cross eastern areas temps beginning to moderate slightly on freezes of former days.
25th Sun with cloud today…………………read on

25th Feb- 4th March

I’m writing this in November 27th, one day after over 500 flood warnings were given out across Great Britain, worse to the SW areas, when everyone is asking, when will this rain ever stop?
The good news is it will subside to much drier conditions from mid March 2013, no consolation if you are reading this before then, but certainly an end is in sight!

I had to go back to February 7th 2012 to find a similar chart that rules this phase, and although it was much drier then, different astronomical events were factored in at that time, this portends a slightly wetter outcome for us for this phase than that one in February winter 2012.

Some thawing arrives to melt any iced over areas, and mists and fogs can result as moisture gets drawn up from watery regions such as lakes, tarns, rivers and canals. Aquatic life is still under threat with these weather conditions as are sailing craft and water adventurers until after mid March. Underground cavities and drains are also continuing to cause problems as thawing can stretch underground water channels to flood breach levels.

Winds get brisk gusty and westerly by 26th and some extra strong gales and speedy winds are expected for 1st March onwards.

25th Icy, sun with cloud some breeziness around but should be a fair day for outdoors.

26th Potential for sleet snow turning to rain at start of day. Some unsettled conditions as freeze and thaw vie with each other, some mists caused by this. Westerlies strong bringing in drying conditions. More showery outbursts localised at mid day, misty evening means milder temps, but some areas of UK could still remain icy overnight.

27th Cold overnight breeding some frost patches, but cloud developing but expect some brightness by 8 am. A cold frosty outlook but some sun spells during the day.

28th Some quick winter showers localised, hail from start of day. Clear skies by 2 am things stay cold some mists and fog more prevalent to east of us, should be a dry day but cloud around.

1st Sun plus cloud and strong winds gusty, milder temps with westerlies clashing with easterlies, high speed to some regions.

2nd Overcast gloomy outlook, still very windy, rain looks to be in NW and heading over our way so I don’t think it will remain dry.

3rd Some quick hail or sleet showers could break out 1-2 am and more showers by 8pm but the day looks dry and we may get some sunshine with cloud.

4th Gusty weather but nice outlook for some sunshine and good outdoor conditions. Temps should be much milder and as forecast in the overview much thawing will have taken place.

4th-11th March

There does look to be some slushy snow around for this phase, and we could see some more white stuff in hail and sleet around 7th and 8th. Overall temps are very mild , but some colder temps arrive for last few days.

Still a lot of a moisture about keeping things damp, but don’t worry this is not going to last and next phase brings a time for drying out and less precipitation. Heavier precipitation expected for outbreaks on 10th and 11th particularly over to the east of us……..

4th As above but some gusty westerlies arriving late at night

5th Gusty outbursts keep things lively, cold start grows milder by sunrise; should be some sunshine around between clouds.

6th A fair day; sunshine around; thawing conditions.

7th Unsettled outlook, often gloomy, showers keep things cool and miserable, some sleet, rain and hail t/out the morning, strong southerlies could bring in some snow and clash with strong easterlies. Winds strong for today.

8th More localised and scattered outbreaks of hail and sleet but sunshine and blue skies to accompany them. Temps cold today, winds strong and very gusty, but at least they blow away any clouds that try to spoil the day.

9th Looks a little misty and cloudy today, some snow clouds look to be coming over but there seems to be a clearer outlook by 11pm

10th Icy start some northerlies keeping temps very cool and it does look like more winter showers arrive before the northerlies get time to clear this system away. Potential for shower and snow attempts again late evening, things look wet and cold at this stage, drizzly mizzly and misty with humidity high……. but skies seem to clear by midnight, but I don’t think the mizzles and drizzles will clear till well into next day……

11th Gloomy start by 2 am, unsettled outlook for today, temps getting colder, winds gusting westerlies, but some southerlies around that may bring in showery conditions, mizzles and drizzles could be continuing from yesterday , cloud with sunshine by sunrise, but not a settled day.

11th-19th March 2013
Looking back, ignoring Lot’s advice to Sarah, In winter 2012 we had two similar charts to this one and both coincided with the most freezing parts of winter, but on this occasion I think we are into a milder than big freeze stage, but we can still expect some similar patterns to emerge in terms of mizzles, drizzles and scattered hail or sleet outbursts, but also some sunshine to let us know what that big yellow thing looks like.

I also looked to find when we might get a heatwave this summer….if we should be so lucky and it does look like one is moving around for 23rd July, just as schools break up which is a change from the usual gloominess that prevails at this time.

However, I digress. Spring doesn’t arrive in full till 23rd March, just after the equinox, when we can finally think about the big outdoors once again and celebrate some nicer conditions.

This phase sees some drier weather trying to break into the northern hemisphere and could thunder in from the outset on 11th with some sizeable earthquakes being set off, and I’m going to be watching the Blackpool area, as well as around Indonesian regions of the globe…I expect some windy weather to prevail but that means faster moving cloud and weather systems leaving clearer outlooks in their wake.
The second half looks drier and less unsettled, northerlies expected for first few days.

11th Whippy westerlies keep things cool and could turn south westerly during the afternoon, some mists and fogs around perhaps more to the eastern parts, with some mizzles around getting heavier at times. Not a nice day expected today…..
12th Very unsettled with lots of static being created, alternate rain and sunshine looks to be breaking out but nothing is for sure with this unsettled outlook. There could even be snow attempts or hail and sleet, northerlies look more active keeping things cool, all weather outcomes will be fast moving so don’t expect any to settle, and potential for some thundery outbreaks as well. An all weather day!

13th Scattery showery outbreaks, localised, from the outset of the day but I do expect some sunshine to break out as well and fingers crossed for a nice sunny day…HURRAH! But nothing lasts that long does it?
14th More unsettled conditions with more thundery outbreaks possible for some regions, maybe not ours, but lots of seismicity and static around so no bets on great weather staying around with this influence….Winds strong to the western quarter, some light sporadic hail or quick showers but also some sunshine around as well. Cloudier even mistier for some localities by evening. Another all weather day.

15th Sunshine with cloud during the day, light showers could still break out, but the temps will be cold so I expect them to be quick hailstorms, gloomy or misty by evening.

16th Temps rise today, but this also warns of mists due to moisture being drawn up by the heat around watery places in valleys. A fair day with some clouding/misting by evening, but I’ve written pretty wild winds around in my notes, so hold on to your hats in case I am very accurate.
17th Cloudy/misty start but cold temps battling milder ones, gusts westerly, clearer sky by late at night, sun with cloud outbreaks during the day.
18th Fair start fine spring day, quick scattered hail outbreaks before sunrise, some gusty weather about though with more clouds by evening, could be cold fogs to some localities
19th Similar to yesterday……………………………………………read on for unsettled conditions for tomorrow.

That completes this outlook for Winter and I will continue with Spring as soon as mid winter solstice is over……so come back for more weather talk then……………

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News November 2012

This weather forecasting blog will resume its amazing long range weather forecasting for W Yorks and yonder in time for the winter season….watch this space…

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Long Range Summer 2012 Weather Forecast West Yorkshire and Yonder

This year we greet Neptune in Pisces and looking back in time we can see an echo of the same position coinciding with droughts for the southern region that they again are currently experiencing. for example JAN 02, 1685

|Drought: no rain for many months before June (London/South).

Droughts come and go in cycles long since defined by astro meteorologists and can be skilfully forecast long range. Currently we are in a drought cycle that will begin to break 2017/18 when the drought cycle will begin to recede
and when high levels of precipitation will begin to arrive once more.

The solstice arrives on the 21st June and this year we have celebrated the second of the pair of transits of Venus over the Sun, as recorded in the Mayan calendar and found in ‘Dresden Codex.’ The last one of this pair was 2004 and the next pair wont arrive until 2117, so a long time to wait if you were hoping to be around for that! Previous conjunctions occurred in 1880’s.

Summer will have varying temerature ranges, with mists hazes and and fogs characterising the season, storms will have lightening to accompany them. We escape the travesty of a totally wet summer in our part of the glove but I’ll
be wtaching areas where the time zone is 1 day ahead of ours for they may not be so lucky.
It’s also a lovely summer fo photographers with those glorious electric blue skies remaining to give those heightened colours in images.

This is a premature look at summer, and I haven’t looked at September yet, but everyone is asking about the summer so I said would post it now. I will continue to analyse the charts and may modify some of these forecasts accordingly, and add Septembers forecast.

Sign up for bi monthly forecasts to be sent to your in box at http://ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com
or read more about how astro meteorology has been used since ancient if not prehistoric times at http://www.starsite.org.uk
and on my other blog http://learnastrometeorology.wordpress.com

!9th-27th June

This phase interrupts the previous good weather but then it is the solstice and usually at this time we get used to seeing lots of people in muddy wellies trying to find their way around Glastonbury and taking unplanned mud baths.
For this week for us there are some fair and not so fair indications arriving and it took a lot of time to tease out what the planets were trying to tell me so bear with me for this forecast, hopefully I got the right messages……but no guarantees.
There will be some fair conditions overall but also some t’storms around elevated places like hills and moor tops due to static conditions that are brewing. We can expect sudden low temps to herald not just hail showers and sleet, even snow showers on some elevations, but also some frostiness overnight. Mists are prevalent in valleys and near watery places and more likely to arrive mid phase…. The mildest temps look likely to break out from 24th which should be a fine day if only it wasn’t for the misty start that may stay around and create haze that blocks full on sun, but I hopefully am wrong about this…..

20th Quick hail or sleet outbreak potential around 9-11 am, with a fair breezy showery outlook before sunrise. Temps look warmer to east and south today, we may get some good temps in our locality but beware sudden drops in temps and expect cold pockets to be strong by evening along with cloud appearing to gather. Easterlies begin to flow by 8-9pm warning of cooler temps to arrive and some precipitation likely by 9-10 pm it could be sleet or hail, even snow on high ground, with frostiness around to greet tomorrow. Some potential for prolonged showery intervals hail, sleet if not t/storms very late evening.

21st Potential for a frosty start with more hail, sleet or snow outbreaks expected before or around sunrise, temps may rise slightly as sun tries to rise to solstice position, but mostly cold conditions reign, with clearer skies.

Scattered showers for during the day but some blue skies with cloud heavier at 2-3pm Some southerlies keep things from being wintery, some gusty NW can arise on exposed areas

22nd Fair outlook from sunrise, after some quick showery attempts at start of 22nd, with some brilliant blue skies and lovely clear atmosphere during the day, I hope. Temps on the low side with scattered showery intervals likely by evening into early next day, over as soon as they begin. Southerly flows stop temps getting too biting but I’m not ruling out frosty ovenight conditions or this could be a marker for dew on the ground so be warned if camping….occasional gusty N Westerlies around so make sure your tent is well pegged if camping on exposed areas………

23rd Flash t/storms expected along with fierce hail or sleet outbreaks combine with gusty north westerlies. Mists and haze and cloud can hover around watery places and valleys, a lot of humditiy around keeping things chilly, cloudy as well by evening with some heavy showery conditions hail and sleet again, but this looks heavier, though not prolonged into overnight.

24th Looks like a better day with a misty start but if the sun can make its way through the haze it should become a fair day, then there should be some warming temps just a little muggy with haziness around and nebulous breezes

25th Summer is breaking through in case you hadn’t noticed but where is all that nice weather I wonder…..This afternoon looks a little damp with even some mizzly drizzly stuff around, but temps feel less hostile for a summer outlook, but this condition could result in some fogs and mistiness. Luckily some northerlies are around from evening trying to clear up the muggy trend.

26th-27th look like better days with some warmth from sun and slight rise in temps, much clearer skies by 27th which should bring a fine night. Venus finally stops her seeming backward motion on these days also.

27th June-3rd July

I’m only giving a quick tour for this phase as it does look mostly settled weather wise with some fresh atmosphere around 29th and 30th and lots of sunshine as well to follow. There could be some windy and breezy outbreaks now and again, but nothing too upsetting for outdoor activity.

Looking at my charts the east coast seems to be the place to be for this phase as the sun looks likely to shine down those shores……. This looks like a fine weather phase so make the most of it. Temps look set to climb by 2-3rd and this could bring some static outburst to north Scotland at beginning and for us by the end.

The 3rd is unsettled and there could be a risk of lightening or other static outburst for some along with some windiness beginning to be a little fiercer.

3rd July-11th July

Drought indicator battle with planets trying to produce cloud and unsettled air and more lightening or static outbursts for this phase. However, it does look like there are some windy trends that upset fine days and from the outset some disruptive weather unsettles the finer outlook. The drought phase, lasting till 2017 I might add, is hitting the south more than the north and looks like getting more noticeable for this time of year with farmers struggling to keep plants properly nourished.

There are some seismic indicators as well and this echoes disturbances such as those at Zermatt in January when an avalanche trapped people in the mountain village, also by end of January we had record snow and disruptions to air travel as well as people dying on street in eastern Europe due to the lows, with Heathrow and other airports encountering problems with flight schedules as well. This freak weather looks likely to occur again due to weather disturbances high up in the atmosphere, bringing in news from Eastern Europe about record breaking weather–could be t/storms that feature, causing problems.

This is a full moon phase normally the barbecue phase for summer addicts or for evening walks and al fresco dining. I honestly don’t think you will be disappointed, although the sun is apogee at the moment and this often means lower temps at this time of year, so I’m surprised to see so many planets battling to keep things summery for this phase, thank goodness..

I do expect some lightening strikes to be quite spectacular for this phase.

3rd brings in some gusty windy westerlies but still some southerlies around keeping things seasonally mild but I do expect temps to climb today also. Cooler outlook for evening so wrap up warm if you are planning a barbecue, and I do recommend putting the fire in a sheltered place to avoid winds blowing flames where you don’t want them to be! The air is unsettled and as mentioned in the previous forecast I can’t rule out a flash t/storm for today but these will be localised static outbursts and it’s difficult to see at this stage exactly where they’ll fall, but I do expect them to be over as quickly as they began with no lingering.

4th Could see some cloud around after a cool night but I also expect some sunshine along with continuing sporadic and gusty westerlies vying with southerly breezes. Some strong NW arrive mid afternoon but southerlies are staying around for a few days to stop things from turning exceedingly stormy or too cold. Temps will drop suddenly so be prepared to wrap up when they do.

5th-6th More static around lightening strikes potential, erratic hail, isolated showers very localised, with very strong gusty NW winds active veering strong gusty and westerly late at night on 5th staying until 6th. Some sunshine in between sporadic static outbursts, in fact there should be a lot of sunshine and blue skies making it an excellent time for photographers.

Some seismic elements around as well so news of either volcanic outpourings or big EQ expected +/- 2-3 days. One of the areas singled out are Omsk and Alma Ata regions of Kazakhstan…..East region of Beijing also vulnerable…..haven’t time to look at the southern hemisphere…

7th-8th Should see temps rising higher, drought conditions causing problems but good days for sunbathing I expect…..outlook unsettled from tomorrow so make the most of this trend

9th A scattered showery outlook, but not heavy for us if they do arrive here, very spartan indeed and a fine outlook for temps rising for our region and beyond. Changes begin to come in weather wise. Some fogs and mists or hazes could create problems for air traffic at this time expect increasing humidity and cloud from today.
Some windy conditions cause problems possibly to the SW region of England I’ll be on watch for tornado breeding but always get foiled by the fact that our British press prefers US tornado reporting to our own, making it impossible for anyone seeing a localised tornado to see the importance of reporting it sadly…….. Weather conditions begin to change today with a more unsettled outlook reigning, isolated storms can spring up for some regions and by 10th it does look like the west is looking at some scattered showery conditions coming in after the highs create more static. The 10th looks like more highs are around with some northerly flows

11th Most likely day for rain to arrive from the west and travel east, but there is a drought indicator as well, but this may just have blocked precipitation being too heavy in previous days, so although temps are seasonally high I don’t see this rain being heavy or prolonged, more like a sudden outburst that soon passes over and refreshes the atmosphere from early morning Erratic weather conditions at this part of the weather phase…..

11th-19th July
Some high temps arrive again halfway through this phase but we can also expect some cold and draftiness from variable breezes and windiness gusting at times from 11-15th Easterlies get stronger by 15th with gusty westerlies strong and speedy at times by afternoon on 16th, but temps climb faster from today. Rain more than likely for 17th and 18th

11th as previously forecast
12th A dry sunny day expected any showery outbreaks would arrive at 6-7 am potentially
13th some cloud around from 1am with potential for shower but by sunrise it looks like a fine weather outlook for today. seasonally average temps continuing
14th sunshine and cloud around with warmth from sun, clouds expected to form by evening when some easterlies get kick started and warm air could create haziness to watery areas.
15th Fine start some clouds forming quick sporadic probably localised showery precip around 5-6 am cool start but sunny with temps rising as sun gets higher easterlies prevailing
16th Cloud or rain expected mid morning and some quick hail showers can arrive bringing localised sporadic scattered outbreaks again by late afternoon. Gusty westerlies could be bringing in some rain late afternoon, getting gusty and speedy at times.
17th expect some high temps to reign today but around 1am some showery stuff could water the garden and this could be a longer rainy spell than in previous days So it could be a cloudy start that develops into sunshine and blue skies as the day progresses with warmth increasing.
18th Some mists cloud or haziness, even showery stuff at start of day and into the morning but a fine afternoon is likely with temps climbing a little higher than yesterday, but this could result in some cloudiness with showery stuff by evening ….19th looks wild and windy>>>>>wait for next phase to be posted………………

19th-26th July
I had to go back to February 2009 to find a similar chart to this one, but of course the weather then was icy though the snowfall and severe cold were on the wane as temps began to mild up a bit. This phase is going to be breezy, some rainy spells and some gloom but thee will also be some fair but breezy weather.
I also expect news about viral outbreaks spreading at the speed of light perhaps coming over from Europe and it could be a similar thing to the blight affecting sheep in February this year, which was spread by mosquitoes coming over in the
mild spell from Germany. More viral outbreaks are expected to fly around in the air.
Also a warning of comms systems being affect by lightening strikes, pylons could be hit or even wind farms, especially to east coast areas of sea and across to west coast of Europe where strong high speed gales look set to cause a bit of a fuss from the outset. This can also indicate wildcat strikes by lightening that can cause fires.

The East coast of Yorkshire looks to be the place to be for the highs from the start of this phase…the heat wave of former days gets broken up today.

Around 22nd brings any bad weather outlook moving to southern regions where temps will be abnormally cooler than usual. Unsettled systems for this day expected

19th Shower potential mid morning-sporadic and later in afternoon, hopefully some drier spells in between scattered t/storms seem to be spreading their wings rapidly and we could hear some of these as they strike around the north and south. Winds look blustery and gusty and the weather is disturbed today finding it difficult to settle into a pattern we can enjoy.

20th A drier day and less unsettled some warmer temps breezes and some sun spells

21st a fine day some fair conditions and breezy weather.

22nd Should see some attempts at rising highs returning for us after a cold start so some temperatures vying with each other so don’t expect a settled outlook. Some static causes quick outbursts, but these shouldn’t stay around for long, although I’m not guaranteeing that by last thing at night some heavier showery weather could arrive due to a slightly unsettled atmosphere, difficult to forecast how far the drought conditions are interfering with precipitation at this time of year of writing in February…certainly wide of flood levels, but both the moon, and Venus are heralding either a heavy downpour from turn of day i.e 12-1:00 am, or else lots of cloud and mistiness, highs develop during the day with breezy but fair conditions, any bad weather looks to be moving south and off the east coast hopefully….

Seismicity is high also and news of EQ +/-2-3 days around this date. N Westerlies keep things mainly dry for us

23rd Any rain will be over to the west today and we should have a normal summer day seasonally average temps
24th Rain could arrive early in the morning before sunrise but a warmer sunnier day develops and it should be warm with a nice evening to enjoy outdoors
25 Some haze clouds or mists around at birth of day temps could be a bit muggy winds are strong NW turning to brisk and gusty by mid morning and more westerly later in the day. I expect clear skies during the day some cloud likely but electric blue skies by evening.

26th July -2nd August
No rain mid day to midnight is usually what happens for this phase but it is only a 90% rule of thumb. But even this kind of rule is helpful for those planning summer events.

Temps are a little on the cooler side for this phase, some breezy to gusty weather along with some good outdoor conditions and sunshine.

26th -27th Rain warning for NW regions we should get some dry breezy weather with afternoon southerlies taking over from early day gusty westerlies

28th some good outdoor conditions cold though, but sunny and some brisk westerlies until late evening.
29th A showery outlook for today cold, sun with cloud and breeziness

30th Some warmer temps mid day but these could be just cool to moderate temps. Fair generally but some rain or showery intervals especially late evening 11 pm approx.
31st Some cold pockets around today so take a wrap with you if going outdoors. Sun with cloud some temps starting to rise by mid day but it is breezy and a bit of a squally outlook for today. This could see some sporadic showery localised spray and showers in the afternoon
1st similar to yesterday clearer skies by evening, southerlies can thicken the atmosphere a little and breed some cloudiness. Could be some fast sudden sporadic and spartan hail or sleet but not the kind that linger…
2nd will be a nice sunny outdoor day with temps above ave.

2-9th August
The low temps for the south continue to make themselves felt and this phase brings potential for high levels of precipitation, but having examined where this is going to be most felt I have arrived at the conclusion that a new business could now be established with a water carrier going out to sea to collect the massive amounts of rain water about to fall mid Atlantic for this phase…contact me for further details about where this new enterprise could be…..

Conflicting warmth and dryness with cool wetness defied teasing out for daily forecasts, so I decided to just stick to a tour of weather outcomes for the phase, though I think the cool wetness lies to the lower south and warmth and dryness is above Midlands and beyond to the north, though East Anglia looks like seeing more warmth and sunshine than we do…

Remember it is a Full Moon that brings barbecue time but this is a rather risky time (March2012) to forecast for consistency in weather outlook to support it. Usually a Full Moon does clear up bad weather, and we can expect better evening than daytime weather…I’m not happy with this forecast at all….We usually get cooler nights for this time of the month as there is less cloud around overnight, but there is a lot of cloud and mist around for this phase.

2nd A sporadic showery outlook some sunshine between clouds. Temps climbing but humidity is high bringing mistiness near watery places. Seems like a calm before the storm develops today
3rd Mists and mizzles around especially near valleys and watering places, even fogs. Humidity is high and thick hazes mists and fogs cause travel problems high humidity continues.
4th Similar outlook continues from yesterday but some some sunshine expected. Scattered showers or mizzles potential around sunrise, but clearer outlook by evening
5th More settled now till 6th when at the start of the day some rain and heavy showers looks likely, the evening looks clearer

7th a quick downpour around sunrise again cool temps sun with cloud and another showery outlook more prolonged by evening 7pm time
8th Temps look set to be warmer today and tomorrow rising temps with southerlies

9-17th August

I had to track back a long way to see a similar chart to this rare display of weather outcomes..I also had to return to 1982 to see what Saturn battling with Mars brought while in fair weather sign Libra. I got lucky and found a brilliant account of severe thunderstorms from May till late summer accompanying this outlook and a wonderfully detailed account on the net, of how bad weather battled with some high temperatures to create thunder and lightening during July 1982. However, in 1982 there were lots of other planets joining in the affray, and this isn’t happening this time around, though I do expect something exciting by the end of this phase in the form of t/storms and even high levels of precipitation to some parts of the UK with weather warnings in place….The first half of this phase is good but the change comes in from 12th when the air begins to get unsettled.

9th Looks like some showery weather coming in from the west but the air is generally refreshing and good for outdoors, we may escape with a few spits and spots blown in on wind, southerlies are strong with some mists to watery areas and still air, higher temps range and some sultry conditions by evening.
10th Should be a lovely serene summers day
11th Temps still seasonally high with wool packed clouds, any rain coming in should be out of the way 2-3am if it does wend its way here, some whistling breeziness could start up heralding some changes to come in the fair trends
12th Conflicting air currents between hot and cold begin to make themselves felt. There is humidity and static around and lightening strikes can begin to break out from today, warning of rain threats.
13th I expect our region to encounter some heavy outbreaks of rain today from early morning. Temps are still on the high if muggy side and mistiness is hogging some watery and lowland areas marring visibility Ipswich looks most affected by misty mizzly and drizzly conditions so I’ll be catching up with their weather outlook for this phase to check my forecast result. The weather continues to remain unsettled as temps are on the rise again by the afternoon which is generally a fair outcome.
14th Some highs expected for 14th creating more static, while my money is on 15th for more lightening and thunder strikes which for some regions beyond ours will be awesome. Some lowland areas can expect windstorms
16th Seems like the weather is less unsettled with temps rising and some nice woolly cloud around. Some westerly breezes prevail.
17th brings another very high temperature day and some good weather>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>but check any modifications to this in my next forecast…….

17th-24th August
This phase is unsettled and it took a while to decide that its migrating droughts hitting the headlines at this time of the year. I expect headlines similar to the ones we got for January this year when an avalanche hit Zermatt and

Bosnia and beyond had the coldest temps on record to east of Europe…..I only wish I could spend more time analysing the trends across Europe to see how this will manifest weather wise for this summer, though I do expect the drought will be heavy to those parts, as will temps reaching viciously high levels……..
We have the conflict of highs and lows continuing, though I am trying to stay communicative in plain English rather than resort to obscure messages used by many forecasters. In a nutshell it seems that there is the threat of stormy outbursts, but somehow the planets prevent these from breaking out into too much rainy stuff and we get some high temperatures and fair weather, though breezes and gusty winds can interfere with smooth sailing….or help it along!
The conflict in fair and foul conditions centres over the middle of England from north to south and going across east coast of Scotland. It seems to convey that the drought for the eastern quarter, East Anglia especially, will continue to cause problems at this time of year. The fair is weather we all enjoy; the foul is a trend to parching conditions that isn’t good for harvests and farmers.
Astro mets will know that the drought conditions are peaking now and won’t return to increasing heavy rainy wet conditions until 2017/19 when the planetary cycle reverses the trend for migrating droughts.

17th Fair weather around with high temp range, dry conditions but some risk of scattered localised showery conditions 5am and 5 pm time wise approx. Temps cooler slightly by evening.
18th Some gusty breezy/windy conditions NW for north Eng and Scotland especially and high ground, we will get gusty breeziness ad risk or more localised hail showery outbreaks, but this also goes with blue skies and fluffy cloud conditions.
19th Cloud with sunshine spells, cloudier outlook for morning with more risk of scattered showers, some cloud coming over mid afternoon but clearer overnight skies into tomorrow morning, temps on seasonally warm. Windy from last night N Westerly
20th rising temps, abnormally dry conditions ruling, with clear skies risk of some scattered showers and southerlies blowing. Looks like an uncomfortably warm night as well….
21st Muggy conditions around today, haziness and static atmosphere, some breezes to keep things aired, some cloudburst potential late at night and into following morning
22nd Cloud and mizzles potential but a finer outlook for the afternoon, warmth from sun and night skies look clear.
23rd Moon is perigee today, close to the earth so exerting a strong pull on tides, cloudy start if not haziness for watery areas, temps still seasonally high today. The afternoon looks better than the morning for clearer skies and sunshine.
24th Hazes mists and cloudiness around today especially to lowland areas, southerlies active and gusty, warm temps and high humidity. Clear overnight skies.

24th-31st August

I expect t/storms and rain, with most likely dates for us to be 24th and 28th but also some good outdoor weather as well with sunshine. Springs and streams in the region should be at capacity offsetting the drought conditions other regions may be experiencing. Winds are westerly for the first half, gustier by 25/26th, turning NW by 28th and easterly for 29th/30th, strong and blustery at times, especially to the NW for 28/29th.
Cast your mind back to the equinox week when we had a t/storm for 17th March, but some lovely if blustery breezy conditions following the precipitation. A similar outlook for this phase, but a rule of thumb is the better weather arrives mid day to midnight so plan outdoor activity for then to try and beat the weather blues as they waft over…

24th Increased humidity and cloud around if not mistiness and haze, could be static outbursts as well before 2pm. Finer outlook by 9-10pm but don’t get lulled into a feeling of great weather tomorrow…
25th This is the most likely day for rain to blot the weather outlook with humidity and cloud around as well as haze to lowlands near watery places, but rain looks set to cover most of the UK today so plan some indoor activity for the kids…
26th More static and hazy conditions and some mugginess, but some warmth around as well and there should be some sunshine for some in our region, but some mists could hover for some localities.
27th Should be more settled with sunshine and outdoor weather summery but seasonally ave temps, cooler to north, some cold pockets to exposed areas.
28th t/storm outbreak potential for today, but not to worry I don’t expect the rain stop play all day and night, and once it has gone we get better days ahead. Currently timefields for most likely occurrence are 3 am approx, and 8-9 and the weather gets warmer during the mid morning with sunshine and colder pockets around late afternoon, some milder temps for evening. The north and NW look to be encountering stronger windy weather around this date.
29th a cool day but lovely and sunny and this outlook should continue over next few days….with some easterly breezes around turning NW and gusty westerly by 31st when temps should be milder. 30th looks cool.

Apologies for any errors in this forecast write up but I still have to decode the amazing anomolies in this envrionment that prevent me from being able to trnsfer from one notepad to another. Also I have had serial problems trying to upload my usual photos so apologies if none show up for this one.

September forecast not yet ready and will add these as soon as I am able. Meantime enjoy the summer!

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Long Range Spring 2012 Weather Forecast W Yorks and Yonder.

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Spring 2012 Spring begins early this year as I accurately pointed out in my Winter forecast. While all the mets were waking up to the sudden arrival of extra mild temps mid Feb, waxing lyrical about how some areas had … Continue reading

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WINTER WEATHER FORECAST West Yorkshire and Beyond 2011-2012


WINTER WEATHER FORECAST West Yorkshire and Beyond 2011-2012

Looks like the unusual temperature fluctuations prevalent during 2011 continue throughout this season with sudden lows followed by a rise that brings sunny days and those glorious electric blue skies we have come to enjoy seeing—fantastic for photographers working outdoors.

For 50% of the season we will have some moderate wintry conditions but for 25% we see some extremes of winter causing havoc to regions of the UK. Generally from 22nd December-8th January we see some dominating highs with cold fronts coming down from the north.
I expect 8- 21st January to be extremely cold and frosty with perhaps some blizzards, see daily forecasts for this potential. Once again it looks like the South gets the record breaking temps, while 5th January, 10th and 15th February, approximately, depending where you are in the UK, there will be some icy cold conditions to deal with. March looks more likely to be less volatile with milder conditions around.

While it was March 2011 that brought us some unusually good weather, and April saw temperatures rising to their highest for 340 years, we can expect a similar pattern to unfold in 2012…but more of this for the spring forecast

February looks wet with more mists and fogs and unsettled conditions around from mid month warning of some high levels of moisture and precipitation for a prolonged period beyond February. Though March looks like more of a drought phase.

Spring is earlier rather than later for 2012 and we get some tastes of spring weather from mid February.

18th-24th December
Looking at previous similar phases to this one there is a catalogue of weather events attaching to celestial/terrestrial outcomes, so I expect this phase to bring in some fair and some foul conditions, with the latter coming in from the outset to many regions of the UK. In the past snowstorms and heavy sleet has arrived with these conditions, though not necessarily in the W Yorks locality.
I should point out that previous similar epochs to this one brought us the tsunami in the Solomon Islands, an EQ in Kent and in November 2010 heavy blizzards to the UK, I also expect blizzards to some regions of UK for 19th-22nd
Snow looks to already be lying around in eastern areas to us at 18th..Precipitaton during this phase would usually be more likely mid day to midnight with some exceptions as written below.
Seismic conditions still create headlines and the SE of England is singled out this time around, but I don’t have time to date it exactly, but 22nd December stands out as likely.
I am only 90% confident of this forecast due to a lot of conflicting weather triggers.

18th Some N Westerlies active icy temps, winter snow showers highly likely with snow bearing cloud coming over but some sunshine around between showers.
19th Fogs/mists around especially in low lying valleys, clearing mid morning but returning late evening combining with nebulous breezy twirls.
20th Frosty or foggy outlook. Snow clouds again from very early in the morning could bring more wintry fall during afternoon, clearer skies around mid day some mists fog by evening and S Easterlies flows for us with poorer weather to the W and SW of the country.
21st S Easterlies unsettle the outlook and bring scattered winter showers and more snow for high ground. Frosty start with sudden hail or sleet outbursts from 7-8 am for our region clearer skies with some sun mid day, and potential for snow flurries mid afternoon and evening coming in from over western regions.
22nd Icy cold outlook brings in some mists and fogs, very unsettled outlook for today for sure, but some sun outbreaks can keep us optimistic for better days ahead. There will be ice around but also some thawing during daytime so take care of slippery conditions when travelling.
23rd N Westerlies, strong at times, clear away some of gloom and better conditions begin to arrive with sunshine but cold temps during the day. Fogginess around overnight 23/24th
24th Some fair outdoor weather again conditions similar to yesterday but N Westerlies turn into some southerlies making it moist and cooler to North UK, slightly more temperate to S England. Could be a few quick ice sleet or snow outbursts in the afternoon coming in from the West. Looks like we get some sunshine also to herald Christmas Day.

22nd for this phase is cold enough to snow and heralds a few days to follow that are lovely sunny, cold with the bluest of skies…get your camera out…but freezing fog outbreaks could arrive in the evening and overnight with icy or oily conditions on roads and footpaths.

24th December -1st January
This is a Full Moon for Christmas day and on such a day we can generally expect the daytime to be fairer with any poorer weather arriving at night.

Everyone wants to know if it will snow on Christmas Day and in October I was in the local BBC radio studios with one of the TV mets who was asked to say whether snow would arrive today. No answer arrived, and I had to say we both wouldn’t expect snow in Leeds on Christmas Day as it is a highly unusual occurrence. However, I also said I hadn’t yet done the charts for this time of year and now that I have……..well I’m not so sure!

Certainly there is some white stuff around from the start and that is likely a leftover from the previous phase. Some snow can be seen to be forming off the coast of SW Iceland on 24th and definitely heading our way, it’s likely to hit NW Scotland by 25th so they are the lucky ones. or not…! It could arrive here by the afternoon on 25th.. so Santa Klaus looks like sending us a nice timely white gift wrapping…or not if I’m way off the mark. I am 100% sure this is snow arriving however, by the time it reaches us in the afternoon the sun could be strong enough to turn it into sleet or rainy weather, so don’t hold your breath….I only give a 95% forecast that it will snow in Leeds on Christmas Day, and do wish I could be more certain.

25th Brings potential for snow flurries around 3. 45 am , then again another try around 10 30 am, with cloud/mists in valleys but clearer skies by afternoon with sunshine and some southerly flows around. By around 20:15 it is likely that winter snows hail and sleet showers will be around to West and N West.

26th Some sun and cloud in the morning, mists in low lying areas, clearer skies by 5-6pm. Southerlies are still active but temps take a plunge when N Easterlies join in the affray and snow likely again today localised and scattered late evening 22:00 approx. Boxing Day can often be a sunny outdoor day and this looks set to follow the pattern..

27th Potential for snow to continue falling into the early hours 1 am onwards this morning leaving a cold frosty outlook to start the day, sunshine likely by late morning with temps less cold than previous day

28th No precipitation expected here, and it should clear to be a sunny day with some N Westerlies around

29th Slightly milder temps but similar to yesterday some S Easterlies which often make the atmosphere a little muggy.

30th Some frostiness with a quick sharp showery micro and localised outlook potential for mid afternoon, cold nippy temps Strong winds, though variable at times, for the next three days mostly NW clearing the atmosphere.

31st Showery from around 4pm with winds as described yesterday intermittent rain throughout is likely.
1st January 2012 More moderate temps with sunshine during the day but windy conditions as described on 30th.

At this stage the forecast reminds us that from the 5th-10th January whatever else is forecast there will be some unusual daytime highs in temperature values for the season, especially during the day, but with strong night time frosts reacting.

1-9th January 2012
I expect some fine sunny and dry weather generally and 3-5th will have some refreshing atmospheric conditions prevailing, but there will be some windiness as well with tornado potential for 8th ( not in our region probably to south of us) when southerly flows clash with north westerlies. Some static release either thunder or lightening is also likely for some UK regions from the outset of this phase.

Some unusual daytime seasonal wintry ‘highs’ can offset the more frosty conditions expected. There is potential for precipitation to be snow or sleet for this phase. I’m only 90% confident of this forecast as there are a few conditions that could bring blizzards, and with some of the features present in my maps we have seen floods previously, though not in the West Yorkshire region, and I don’t expect any after the 2nd of January……famous last words perhaps! Generally a quarter Moon phase at this time of year should not arouse severe weather……

However, seismicity is high on 8th and regions vulnerable are E of China Japan regions and N Aus area Timor island area

1st Strong gusty westerlies, temps seasonally moderate with hail, sleet and snow showers around 1-2 am, and again 1-3pm but clearer skies by evening but some sunshine to brighten in between.

2nd Easterly wind flows with muggy conditions and potential for more sleet and hail showers 3-4pm Clouds and mists around by evening, especially in the Aire Valley, but by midnight stargazers should get a good clearer glimpse of the world beyond ours…photographers would also get good midnight scene shots.

3rd Breezy spells with moderate temps and some sunshine with cloud but the air will be refreshing and outdoor pursuits more enjoyable in this kind of atmosphere. Even with winter showers which could be around for some localities further east of ours, not ours I don’t think, the air will feel exhilarating and bracing with these kind of conditions.

4th Strong westerlies continue, sun with cloud but clearer skies late at night.

5th Sleet or localised hail showers to the west of us around mid day, but we seem to remain dry. Cool temps greet us in the morning, but it looks like from today until 10th January they begin to go higher than is seasonally usual bringing in some new records. Westerlies turn southerly which also indicates milder temps for the season.

6th Sunny day, some cloud and nebulous breezes. Any winter showers would arrive between 7-9am and if I’m right we see snow to west and rain to east of us by 1-3pm

7th Southerlies and some fogs and mists around from outset with sun breaking through after sunrise quick icy showers likely 10-11pm, strong easterly outlook and a snow bringer harbinger for intermittent winter showers

8th-Should be some sunshine around with strong southerlies seasonally mod-high temps. Fast windy outbreaks likely, Tornado conditions created as mentioned earlier as southerlies conflict with some icy cold strong N Westerlies that can bring snow blizzards. Very nippy conditions in exposed and shaded areas, warmth from sun in sheltered areas. EQ headline expected on 8th—+/- 1 day.

Read on for 9th….the N Westerlies will be strong and icy from 11th onwards on so wrap up warmly. High winds and blizzards are likely to be prominent features weather wise till 21st January t/out UK regions but our main focus is on W Yorks and yonder……

9th- 16th January

Watch the weather change abruptly after 12th this week……..
A sudden jolt arrives by 12th when very icy lows arrive bringing a sudden change in temperature for our region. N W winds are still active on 12th also but these will blow away unwanted cloud leaving some sun and a fresh atmosphere, icy temp pockets in exposed or shaded regions.
Snow is almost guaranteed for 14th and beyond
Blizzards look likely to affect UK regions disrupting traffic and power lines from 8th-21st January.

9th-12th Overall for these days I do expect sunshine along with some unusually rising seasonal temps around, but these also indicate extra cold frosty nights when we see lovely crisp clear skies, but these combinations can also give birth to some freezing fogs and mists as well….winds as outlined above….

11th Frosty start but some sun during the day after early morning clouds and mist. Frost and potential for snow by 23:15 with southerlies active,
12th The warmth begins to be drawn southwards later today leaving us with breathtaking lows and a turn around from the temperatures on previous days. Freezing fogs can cause travel problems from early morning, clearing around mid day for some sun to come out during the afternoon but cold nippy gusty westerlies keep everyone on their toes.
13th Sun with cloudy start, south easterlies bringing in some mugginess and snow clouds forming. Winter showers likely 5-7am looks like snow or sleet blizzards.
14th Cold temps continue with some hope of sunshine during the day but snow bearing clouds release their load by evening with northerlies around late evening to clear up some of the muggy air.
15th Snow likely to continue till early this morning. Looks gloomy for first part of day, clearing slightly during the afternoon, with betters conditions for late evening, cold temps continue.
16th Winter showers around from 6-7 am, and 2-3pm with some sun attempts in between, but still some muggy air around leading to a slight rise in temps on previous days……. 5-6pm brings in a better outlook

16th-23rd January

Some blue skies with sunshine for some days interrupted with static icy outbursts of hail and sleet, and snow for some UK regions.. Some arctic lows arrive producing mists and fogs in low lying areas.

16th Icy conditions with snow for high slopes, quick winter showers after a gloomy mid day, skies clearing by 6 pm but more winter hail and sleet showers likely and cloud by 8-9 pm static conditions will bring in some reports of lightening showers today/tomorrow for some regions of UK.
17th Temps milder than yesterday but some mists/fog and dullness to start of day, snow potential for south of our region, we get icy showers outbursts 6pm and 8pm approximately, depending on your locality as these are very localised outbursts, but sunshine around in the afternoon.
18th Icy, icy, icy start but some blue skies around sunrise, icy cold outbursts around mid day. Freezing fog around by evening and winter snow and sleet showers arrive late at night
19th Temps slightly milder here than yesterday, static outbursts for some regions, snow on high ground with easterlies creating some unsettled conditions. Sun and cloud with unsettled outlook arriving from west. A blizzard outlook can develop today bringing heavy snowfall to some regions beyond ours especially on high ground.
20th Much the same as yesterday but temps more variable and fluctuating, some clearer skies but icy pockets, but a little warmth from sun, quick icy attempts at showers likely for some localities in our region.
21st Midnight 20th-21st clearer conditions arrive. Sun around with cloud during the day, but arctic lows as weather travels easterly, the evening looks to bring some clearer skies for us but that means temps plunge lower with no cloud cover to keep things warm so frost and ice on roads prevails. The arctic conditions could ward off snow falling in our region today but I can’t be 100% certain, for there is a snowy outlook operating for some areas of UK
22nd Less severe low temps and some sunshine around today. Westerlies begin to prevail after today, growing strong, gusty and nippy over next 24 hours, but temps seem to be less severe and icicles look likely to be keeping everyone entertained today and tomorrow…..so there could be some thaw to iced over waters….

23rd-31st January

Similar conditions prevailed 31st March 2012 when blizzards hit Lancashire and Ireland got 1 foot of snow in 10 minutes causing chaos, but some modifications exist this time around bringing some variations on the theme back then.

Snow looks likely to hit John O Groats region and winter showers hit SW Midlands with weather pulled from SE to NW from 26th and seismic outbursts a trend for this phase.

23rd Strong westerlies, high speed continue for a few more days with outlook gloomy and rainy from start of 23rd still showery by 6am, clearing for a sunnier outlook by morning. Quick icy showers could arrive by evening with temps seasonally cool.
24th Slightly milder temps today, cloud mists in the early morning sudden showery intervals also. Skies look a little clearer by 10- 11 am so some sun spells expected during the day. Cloud around late evening with snow for high regions likely late evening.
25th Icy winter showery outbreaks, potential for snow flurries for our region, but west of us is likely candidate for heavier outbreaks than we get. Temps cold. Should be some sun conditions by afternoon with skies looking much clearer by 11pm.
26th Very cold weather with more news of winter blizzards could combine sleet and snow. A cloudy morning but sun spells by late afternoon, late evening looks icy and frosty or crisp underfoot so take care while journeying.
27th Southerlies and some easterlies which can bring in muggy conditions along with daybreak mists and fogs. Sun with cloud fro 7 am cloudier by 5pm. Some very heavy winter showers moving across from SE to NW regions. Expect icy showery intervals till late evening continuing into early next day.
28th Windy, icy cold, with ice frst particularly on exposed ground where strong winds can blow N Westerly turning into high speed gusts at times. Sun with cloud by the afternoon, with temps variable today from freezing cold to less severe, clearer conditions by 7pm.

31st Jan – 7th Feb

Some dominating high seasonal temps with lows to Scotland and northern England, westerlies arriving to confirm the outlook. Some misty conditions and showery outlook to the west of UK and unsettled temps make it difficult to predict outcomes for this phase weather wise so far ahead. There’s a lot of contradictory signals weather wise with some icy low freezes offset by some dull, showery, mizzly conditions and a tendency for temperatures to thwart a constant that helps forecast the outcome. I do expect some good outdoor weather though on some days probably the first two days and then for the second half. The first half is dominated by some highly variable conditions that could lead into prolonged heavy winter showers overnight 1st-2nd, with some flood alerts showing for some UK regions and I’m only sorry I never get time to do all the necessary charts to readily locate and follow the weather trends throughout the UK

31st shows some localised quick icy showery outbreaks some sun during the day with late evening mists and mizzles, and cold pockets. Snow or frost not unlikely either, but the air should feel clear if not invigorating.

1st Feb some quick showers lead to a sunny day cloud forming by evening along with more mizzle or quick showery outbursts by 10pm Strong westerlies look likely to break over the west of us and could reach here, temps cool to moderate and varying. I expect some prolonged rainy outbursts as mentioned above from late tonight till tomorrow

2nd The rain could continue from last night until a final shower outburst lasting 2-3pm. Southerlies combine with easterlies echoing the forecast for the unsettled weather.

3rd Cool to moderate variable temp conditions sunshine with cloud during the day and a quick shower potential around 4 pm with some more cloud around late evening. breeziness could arise also

4th-5th I expect today and tomorrow to be a little more settled with some sunshine and warmer temps especially with sun around to cheer everyone up, cold temps on high places and in sheltered areas. More cloud around by 8pm on 5th

6th-7th A dry day, sunshine and cloud clearing enough to allow some blue skies, cold pockets, breezy sudden spurts of NW winds lower temps in high places with potential for snow on high ground a few flutters here not beyond the bounds of expectation. Some localised icy winter shower outbreaks by evening approx clearer outlook after 6pm. Exposed regions will have some strong pockets of wind blowing downslopes, gusty at times.

7th-14th Feb
This phase brings a long ranging change from fair to not so good from halfway through. Overall the mists and dull weather remind us of November’s mists and mugginess as we move towards Valentine’s Day! Temps will be variable damp air can be a little cloying if not oppressive particularly the by the 9th onwards with prolonged precipitation likely from late on 12th into early hours of 13th raising water levels in some rivers and we can expect a warning of disruption to travel as a result. Mists and fog, mizzly muggy outlook for second half can also interfere with air travel as well.
Again I’m looking at some conflicting evidence for weather, some of which dictates snow and frost, others that forecast mistiness, mizzles and milder temps that deny a snowy or icy outlook so a difficult weather chart to be confident of for this phase, but I do expect the prolonged precipitation on 12-13th and I also expect at least one if not more river to burst its banks and create problems for motorists from the outset, air travel will also be affected by fogs and mists at some airports particularly for the second half of this phase.

6-7th as previously describes
8th Cold start with frosts mists or even snow around in high places, but sunshine brightens up the middle part of the day, with temps growing moderate, but colder by evening when cloudy skies are around.
9th-10th Mists and fog around, some scattered often localised hail and sleet or winter showers with temps variable, climbing slightly higher on 10th but the outlook is increasingly unsettled. Cold to frosty conditions at night with southerlies clashing with cold northerlies and gusty westerlies trying to sort out the weather, but not succeeding, by late 10th. Temps can be unusually mild for this time of year but the air will be a little oppressive as a result.

11th Showers likely around mid day, some sun could break through later afternoon, but more gloom around by evening. Humidity levels are high…
12-13th Oppressive air rules and damp conditions can be chilly with muggy, misty mizzly conditions expected to culminate in prolonged if not abnormal precipitation from tonight into early morning on 13th, not nice conditions for these two days, though sun may breakthrough clouds late on 13th when easterlies prevail

14th-21 Feb
The worst of the floods should be coming over and I expect many areas to be affected by this heavy precipitation which will see heavy amounts fall in a short space of time helping February match if not beat its record set for England and Wales in 1848.
A weather system moves down from the Isle of Foroyar to NW Scotland from 14th, and is followed by a cold icy weather flow forming off the S E coast of Iceland bringing some cold icy conditions to northern highlands travelling S Easterly down Great Britain for this phase.

14th Rain will be travelling eastwards and flood warnings continue, some in our region from yesterday, some static outbursts and lightening could accompany this flow with drains overflowing and roads affected. Cool temps with some cold pockets around. Some sunshine with cloud during the day.

15th N Westerlies around today, strong at times, mild to mod temps for season, some sunshine around but rain expected by 7-8pm

16th mod temps during the day but icy by night time, cloud with sunshine winds NW can be strong and speedy and lashing, gales likely.

17th Some gloom fogs and mists before sunrise clearer by 7 am, cold outlook but bluer sky outlook by 9 am with sunshine arriving auguring a nice sunny day mild temps a little cloud around and some southerly intrusions into the less active whippy westerlies bringing in some cloud for the evening.

18th Expect early morning showers, clouds and mists around from night before, some cool temps but clear skies with sunshine during the day. Strong if not high speed winds expected by today, very unsettled conditions prevail with clear skies soon clouding over then clearing again.

19th Variable temps today, some sunshine, variable winds, mists and mizzly evening weather, followed by more very heavy rain 7pm approx.

20th Clearer skies today, after a misty muggy start, with a cold nippy outlook during the day, zippy westerlies strong at times, and rain coming over to the south western parts of UK today.

21st Dry but icy pockets mingle with some mild to mod temps in sunshine. Cloudy by evening with rain to west leaving us dry.

21st Feb -1st March 2012

Outlook is for some fine weather interrupted by scattered showery intervals, temps look mostly moderate for the season but some icy pockets around. Some windy weather expected with strong if not gales for us by 26th. I don’t expect high levels of precipitation to reach flood capacity, in fact many winter showers look light if frequent, but 26th-27th looks to bring heavier rain but this will clear the air and provide refreshing conditions that make even a wet walk in the wood seem uplifting, though the strong winds might make it a little risky in case of dead branches being blown off…..
Seismic conditions herald a large EQ for end of this phase, and 1st is likely time with Spain, SE of Madrid and France looking to be affected.

21st As already outlined in previous phase, I expect winter showers to be travelling over here in the morning and moving over to eastern parts by afternoon leaving chilly temps in their wake, some little warmth in sun but mostly cold with southerlies and some easterlies around. Some mistiness and cloud around by evening in valleys and especially to regions to the east of W Yorks.

22nd Icy showers before sunrise and mid afternoon, clouds around clearing by 9 pm some sunshine breaks during the day, temps seasonally moderate, breeziness prevails with air currents strong to the easterly quarter.

23rd Quick spartan icy showery along with sunny outbreaks 9am and later in day, not long lasting, gusty westerly windy weather continues into today, fair temps around but icy showers keep things wintry. By 9pm still windy, fair outlook and still showery outbreaks which continue to be localised and scattered until next morning.

24th Sun with cloud by late morning should remain drier today but a strong northerly keeps temps cool

25th A sunny and bright day, though winter sleet showers around 10 am expected. Cold temps as strong northerlies give way to some winds westerly, strong and gusty from the outset but these turn to south westerlies by 2 pm, and will build to stronger outburst as day progresses Mists and cloud by 8pm.

26th-27th Cooler temps, strong windy weather that can bring gale strengths into play, 7 am on 26th brings showery conditions with more cloud forming by 1pm more rainy outbreaks overnight into 27th when intermittent rainy spells refresh the air but keep things wet wet wet. Some south easterlies coming in on 27th also

28th Should be more settled outlook, moderate temps winds can still be brisk.
29th Quick showers expected around 9 am, temps icy lots of cold pockets rolling down from north and a frosty outlook highly likely by evening. Winds gusty North Westerly strong and speedy at times. Some sunshine expected for today.
1st March Temps moderate for season during the day but frosty cold at night winds variable but very strong and high speed at times, showery outbreaks from 2am and again risk of more by 10pm

1st-8th March 2012
Thunderstorms and lightening are signalled during this phase, with spring temps warming up a little to boost hopes of better weather to come….Some mistiness expected for 6-8th and strong winds from outset with Market Harborough region likely to experience on 5th, some unusual if not record breaking weather, near tornado type wind activity or wind clashes are prevalent during this phase. There is a promise of a little good outdoor weather but this could quickly change leaving you exposed to some rapid changes that catch you out, so be warned that nothing is to be left for granted weather wise…mistiness can arise 6-8th but clearer outlook afterwards…..

1st Strong winds expected with easterly flows in the mix, temps moderate with some cool pockets coming downslope by the evening, mistiness around cloud and some lightening or static outburst expected for today, icy showers if not hail by 11pm also. Outlook is seismic for today +/- 2-3 days.

2nd N westerlies around strong at times, some variable mix of winds produce easterly and southerly clashes as well, squally winds expected. Temps vary from cool to moderate but much cooler by evening, a very unsettled outlook again, with risk of more static outbursts by evening. Showers look to be localised and scattered 7-9pm short and sharp but heavy at times. Some sunshine with cloud, but no guarantees…

3rd Mod temps but some cold pockets around especially in exposed high places, broody southerlies around today and tomorrow, sun, cloud, wind and rain expected, a kind of all weather outlook

4th Variable winds strong at time, strong easterlies to start with, followed by strong westerlies whizzing about, SE by afternoon and SW by evening. Cloudy, but sun at the start of the day, misty showery outlook overall, with conditions a bit murkier to the west of our W Yorks region, looks like some clearer outlook for us by 8pm, but don’t hold your breath…a quick showery outbreak could also arrive at this time too….

5th This day heralds sudden weather changes and static outbursts with intermittently strong NW winds likely, and cold pockets around in spite of some warming trends as sun gains strength. Better outlook by mid day with some sunshine around and warmth if sun gets out….

6th Cold from very early but milder later. Mists arrive today but also milder temps, with cloud around for the most part during the day. Can’t see much sun but I could be wrong…this is a cold November day today…

7thMuch milder today with a spring outlook developing should remain dry with some sun attempts to let us know the earth is quickening and summer is on its long journey into the northern hemisphere… Should stay dry but breezy

8th The bad weather travels NW to SE today and a clear outlook with sunshine expected…….

8th-15th March
Time allowed only a brief tour for this phase. So not a daily forecast unfortunately…

Mostly a dry phase but there will be reports of t/storms for some UK regions, we may be lucky and avoid such outbreaks locally. The phase looks mostly dry and spring like with warming temps to bring out plant growth but some strong winds at time predominantly westerly, remainig breezy in between the strong bouts of windy weather.
Rain is most noteable on 9th and 14th and some rumblings of t/storms likely 14th-16th as spring continues its journey into the northern hemishpere. 11-12th is when temperatures will rise but this leads to static oubreaks in days afterwards depending where you are in the UK.

15th-22nd March

This phase brings in some fine serene outdoor weather, especially to eastern parts, but also it is characterised by strong and sometimes gale force winds mostly West and N Westerlies, Some drying trends and unsettled conditions with the sun moving North on 19th. I expect news reports of strong gales causing disruptions to power lines around 18/20th, depending on your UK region, as well as to traffic, probably Scotland again, but high lying regions generally to north also affected. Precipitation more likely mid day to midnight for this phase. Extreme west UK and GB coastal regions such as Caenarvon, Pembroke Cornwall NW Scotland etc look likely to be worst hit by the strong winds for this phase.

16th Temps on the rise strong N Westerlies often gusty and strong and lasting next couple of days. Some sunshine expected and mostly dry weather, the rise in temp could lead to some static outbursts.

17th Winds strong continuing gusty intervals, risk of showery outbreaks today, heavier to west of our region but winds could fetch rain here. The low pressure looks south east at this stage.

18th The weather looks more unsettled, with sunshine and cloud, with winds not knowing whether to stay or go. Temps can be cold but some warmth from sunshine and rain is definitely around our region in the afternoon especially when dark clouds can reign, and could be heavy at times, but I see no risk of floods from this level of precipitation.

19th Sunshine and fair weather clash with some passing gloomy clouds but winds look to be strong enough to take away any darkening of the skies. I expect some blue skies to prevail today and tomorrow.

20th Strong gusty sometimes high speed winds expected to rev up again, N Westerly, some blue skies to brighten up the outlook, but cold, but after today temps could heat up to remind us that summer is just around the corner….

21st Sun with cloud around but high temps expected could lead to quick showery outbreaks by evening…….winds look less active by today…

22nd Sunshine, blue sky and N Westerly spurts keeping temps exposed to cold pockets, hail or fast sleet showery outbreaks but will be short lived. Winds turn more high speed and westerly by afternoon. Brisk south westerlies begin to blow in for tomorrow…..

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Christmas, Pagan, Midwinter Seasonal Forecast West Yorks and Yonder 18 December 2011-1st January 2012

WINTER WEATHER FORECAST West Yorkshire and Yonder 2011-2012

General outlook for Winter season:-Looks like the unusual temperature fluctuations prevalent during 2011 continue throughout this season with sudden lows followed by a rise that brings sunny days and those glorious electric blue skies we have come to enjoy seeing—fantastic for photographers working outdoors.

For 50% of the season we will have some moderate wintery conditions but for 25% we see some extremes of winter causing havoc to regions of the UK.
I expect 8- 21st January to be extremely cold and frosty with perhaps some blizzards, see daily forecasts for this potential. Once again it looks like the South gets the record breaking temps, while 5th January, 10th and 15th February, approximately. depending where you are in the UK, there will be some icy cold conditions to deal with. March looks more likely to be less volatile with milder weather around.

While it was March 2011 that brought us some unsually good weather, and April saw temperatures rising to their highest for 340 years, we can expect a similar pattern to unfold in 2012..but more of this for the Spring forecast later…

Midwinter, Pagan and Christmas Weather

18th-24th December
Looking at previous similar phases to this one there is a catalogue of weather events attaching to these celestial/terrestrial outcomes, so I expect this phase to bring in some fair and some foul conditions, with the latter coming in from the outset to many regions of the UK. In the past snowstorms and heavy sleet has arrived with these conditions, though not necessarily in the W Yorks locality. We got the floods to the West UK on October 24th though W Yorks escaped the heavy weather that was due to the Perigean Spring tide moon on 26th of that month.
I should also point out that previous similar epochs to this one brought us the tsunami in the Solomon Islands, an EQ in Kent and in November 2010 heavy blizzards to the UK, I also expect blizzards to some regions of UK for 19th-22nd
Snow looks to already be lying around in eastern areas to us at 18th..precipitaton during this phase would usually be more likely mid day to midnight with some exceptions as written below.
Seismic conditions still create headlines and the SE of England is singled out this time around, but I don’t have time to date it exactly, but 22nd December stands out as likely.
I am only 90% confident of this forecast due to a lot of conflicting weather triggers.

18th Some NWesterlies active icy temps, winter snow showers highly likely with snow bearing cloud coming over but some sunshine around between showers.
19th Fogs/mists around especially in low lying valleys, clearing mid morning but returning late eveinng combining with nebulous breezy twirls.
20th Frosty or foggy outlook. Snow clouds again from very early in the morning could bring more wintery fall during afternoon, clearer skies around mid day some mists fog by evening and S Easterlies flows for us with poorer weather to the W and SW of the country.
21st S Easterlies unsettle the outlook and bring scattered winter showers and more snow for high ground. Frosty start with sudden hail or sleet outbursts from 7-8 am for our region, clearer skies with some sun mid day, and potential for snow flurries mid afternoon and evening coming in from over western regions.
22nd Icy cold outlook brings in some mists and fogs, very unsettled outlook for today for sure, but some sun outbreaks can keep us optimistic for better days ahead. There will be ice around but also some thawing during daytime so take care of slippery conditions when travelling.
22nd for this phase is cold enough to snow but also heralds a few days to follow that are lovely sunny, cold with the bluest of skies…get your camera out…but freezing fog oubreaks could arrive in the evening and overnight with icy or oily conditions on roads and footpaths.

23rd N Westerlies, strong at times, clear away some of gloom and better conditions begin to arrive with sunshine but cold temps during the day. Foggines around overnight on 23/24th
24th Some fair outdoor weather again conditions similar to yesterday but N Westerlies turn into some southerlies making it moist and cooler to North UK, slightly more temperate to S England. Could be a few quick ice sleet or snow outbursts in the afternoon coming in from the West. Looks like we get some sunshine also to herald Christmas Day.

24th December -1st January
This is a New Moon for Christmas day and on such a day we can generally expect the daytime to be fairer with any poorer weather arriving at night.

Everyone wants to know if it will snow on Christmas Day and in October I was in the local BBC radio studios with one of the local TV mets who was asked to say whether snow would arrive on Cjristmas day in Leeds city. No answer arrived, and I had to say we both wouldn’t expect snow in Leeds on Christmas Day as it is an highly unúsual occurrence. However, I also said I hadn’t yet done the charts for this time of year and now that I have……..well I’m not so sure!

Certainly there is some white stuff around from the start and that is likely a leftover from the previous phase. Some snow can be seen to be forming off the coast of SW Iceland on 24th and definitely heading our way, it’s likely to hit NW Scotland by 25th so they are the lucky ones..or not…! It could arrive here by the afternoon on 25th.. so Santa Klaus looks like sending us a nice timely white gift wrapping…or not if I’m way off the mark. I am 100% sure this is snow arriving however, by the time it reaches us in the afternoon the sun could be strong enough to turn it into sleet or rainy weather, so don’t hold your breath….I only give a 95% accuracy rating for my forecast that it will snow in Leeds on Christmas Day, and do wish I could be more certain.

25th Brings potential for snow flurries around 3. 45 am , then again another try around 10 30 am, with cloud/mists in valleys but clearer skies by afternoon with sunshine and some southerly flows around. By around 20:15 it is likely that winter snows hail and sleet showers will be around to West and N West Uk regions

26th Some sun and cloud in the morning, mists in low lying areas, clearer skies by 5-6pm. Southerlies are still active but temps take a plunge when N Easterlies join in the affray and snow likely again today localised and scattered late evening 22:00 approx. Boxing Day can often be a sunny outdoor day and this looks set to follow the pattern..

27th Potential for snow to continue falling into the early hours 1 am onwards this morning leaving a cold frosty outlook to start the day, sunshine likely by late morning with temps less cold than previous day

28th No precipitation expected here, and it should clear to be a sunny day with some N Westerlies around

29th Slightly milder temps but similar to yesterday some S Easterlies which often make the atmosphere a little muggy.

30th Some frostiness with a quick sharp showery micro and localised outlook potential for mid afternoon, cold nippy temps Strong winds, though variable at times, for the next three days mostly NW clearing the atmosphere.

31st Showery from around 4pm with winds as described yesterday intermittent rain throughout is likely.
1st January 2012 More moderate temps with sunshine during the day but windy conditions as described on 30th.

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AUTUMN WEATHER FORECAST W YORKS and BEYOND


Autumn Weather 2011

A very cold autumn is augured with record lows, some arriving to bring bone chilling conditions from 13 Nov-13th December, and some temperature extremes from 23rd September.
There can also be some mizzly drizzly spells with mists and freezing fog, and some of these spells arrive for us around mid 10-18th December.
Some fair skies to enjoy however and unusual seasonal dryness continues to keep the global warming demons happy.

Plato Aristotle and their predecessors would smile at the thought of climate change being reversible, or only a 21st century occurrence, by their reckoning and reports it had been around and well noticed millennia before some up and coming young exec ‘’discovered’’ a new way of painting his bandwagon today.

But enough of pre history……..we can expect some unusual autumnal conditions to arrive along with more seismic outbursts, one of which centres around +/_ 4 days 17th December…when we can expect one of the big seismic events of the season.

Snow potential exists around late September and early October with some nasty weather around 24th November (around the globe as well) when the now infamous close sysygy makes its pull on the earth’s atmosphere. For us it brings severe weather trends, blizzards and very heavy precipitation combing with record lows by 25th.

We have an abundance of super moons for everyone to enjoy after the publicity they got this year in connection with EQ activity, one very close super moon occurs 24th November so watch for weather headlines then another 28th September, but the closest of all is the 26th October, so if you feel you’re reading a lot of stormy outlooks for the Autumn you now know why!

I could pick out some good weeks ….but why spoil it for you when you can read the week by week forecast for yourself…….One thing I do expect is some lovely blue skies to enjoy with less gloom around than we normally get in our British autumn.

20th-27th September

Unsettled conditions around, with localised flood potential for SW regions due to very heavy precipitation arriving in a short space of time. Some downpours for Severn area but the duration won’t be long lasting and fair weather spells soon prevail again. T/storm around 22nd/23rd and risk of squalls arriving with winds revving up by 26th-27th
Seismicity centring +/_ 3-4 days 26th September one area of globe I’ll be watching is Sea of Chomsk area, meantime over on our shores high power lines could be affected especially to northern regions..

20th Some sun with cloud spartan showers around 7-8 am heat later in sun, but some cold pockets around with easterly flows brining in unsettled weather Rain overnight to early 21st heavy at times with sudden spartan outbreaks continuing till mid afternoon. Southerlies and cloud with sun in the afternoon, clearer skies by evening….
22nd. Early showers risk 3-4 am with cloud around brisk westerlies brining showers by late evening though skies should be less cloudy by 8-9 pm.
23-24th Can be thundery outbreaks and potential for tornado on 23rd, not in our region though, squalls can be active as temps build on 23rd and northerly winds getting stronger to some regions. More settled on 24th with southerlies around again.
25th Warmer generally but variable temps sunshine with cloud, fine evening.
26th More squally conditions stronger by 27th for some regions, but clearer skies and sunnier weather. Seasonal highs for today and 27th.

27th Sept-4th Oct
Some record breaking and destructive weather to North, seismic events still in headlines at the start of this close sysygy. Changeable weather as summer turns more autumnal, or else misses out this season altogether!

27th Very strong winds prevailing and high speed NW gales in part of UK, temps moderate for the season, cool enough to snow on exposed high ground. Mists cloud, or fog around 2-3 am. Sleet, hail, even snow on high ground 6-10am.
28th Similar conditions to 27th, cooler but clearer skies western areas look misty or foggy, perhaps sea frets likely 2-3 am, clearer in the day but some intermittent winter showers potential 9-11 am and 1-4pm, turning cloudy late evening, strong winds continue..
29th Clearer skies, moderate seasonal temps, potential for quick shower 1-3pm
30th Showers around 1-3pm Heavy downpour expected 8-10pm.
1st -4th should be more settled and calmer after stormy weather, with better outdoor conditions by 1st, and southerly flows for 2nd cool but clearer skies 3rd brings some mists and hazes or cloud early morning, but some sunshine with cloud as day develops, 4th could see some quick showery outbreaks, cool with some sunshine along with westerlies and easterlies clashing.

4th Oct-12th
Some good outdoor weather expected but some rainy conditions as outlined. Mostly dry, sunny with breeziness The record breaking weather looks to be to SW regions of the IUK at the outset of this phase….could be windy conditions that attract attention…..but some unsettled weather for this phase made it difficult to be confident of the forecast at this stage……..

4th Some precipitation moving over the far east from outset, breezy-very windy condition for some regions Cooler outlook but still seasonally average conditions and thundery outbreaks likely to some parts of UK.
5th-7th Sunshine with clouds, noisy winds and sudden spartan showery outbursts especially on 7th
8th Rain bearing cloud formations moderate temps, nebulous breezes and potential for rain/thundery showers by evening
9th Warmth in mid day sun, more sunshine around for us today.
10th A bit unsettled today. Sudden showery outbreaks by evening, some hail and sleet and potential for snow on high ground. Brisk westerlies and sometimes strong along with some southerlies.
11th Strong easterlies blow in some mugginess could even be the white stuff coming over with this unsettled air, early hail sleet outbursts possible from around sunrise Clearer skies after 6pm

12th….read on….

12th-20th October
Cool and breezy phase with some freaky windy weather extremes hitting the headlines, Durham and NW looks vulnerable to this system and headlines could come in from those regions as well as SE.
W Yorks singled out to be battered by strong winds and we could see some wind damage here and overturned vehicles as well. Try not to plan a journey across exposed regions at this stage….Heavy showers expected but weather more settled to second half of this phase..

12th Potential for showery outbreaks 10-11 am less cloudy later in the morning with some hope for sunshine during the day with better skies by night time though some mists/fog in low lying places late evening. Temps seasonally cool but clouds keep conditions muggy
13th Rain around sunrise, intermittent showery weather, heavy but refreshing, temps variable with rain cooling things down but some sun spells bring warmth by mid day and beyond. Winds could begin to rev up today becoming gusty if not violent and destructive….north westerly…over next few days…
14th Fluctuating temps again, with cold from wind and rain passing over UK regions west to east reaching our region from beginning and end of day but some clearer skies possible 10 am – 5pm but we’re likely to be watching some freaky windy weather unfold today and tomorrow. Seismic conditions are also high over the coming days to 23rd…
15th Sun with cloud cool temps but clearer skies, sudden showery outbreaks 5-7pm Lovely overnight clear skies.
16-17th Clearer outlook southerlies bring in more moderate temps, sun with cloud, and risk of sudden showers late afternoon and evening could even be quick thundery outbursts by 17th when northerlies attempt to purge the bad weather.
18th Clearer skies, spartan outbreak attempts early morning 18th but sunny by afternoon, later afternoon outbreak spartan, on 19th. Temps rising moderately
20th Could be showery….read on….

20th-26th October
Some fine outdoor weather, cool but windy with more destructive outbreaks expected for 24-25th onwards so take care if on high ground, near trees or driving across high areas. Any rain attempts will be sudden often spartan in nature ad not long lasting with skies clearing soon afterwards..

20th Temps seasonally warm, quick spartan showery attempts 12-3pm sun with cloud strong S Westerlies and some rain potential late at night.
21st Sun with cloud around mod to brisk lively westerlies.
22nd Still Breezy, sun with cloud today
23rd Cool but clearer skies, some cloud and variable winds continue
24th Rain early from outset of day, speedy NW winds, clear clouds away during the day
25th Sunny day, cool but strong if not violent winds NW and record breaking around this date…
26th Some static outbursts from midnight to early morning, these accompany seasonal warming with likelihood of heavy levels falling. Winds look set to continue but be less volatile. Outlook is stormy, clearing as day grows older when the system moves to the far east of UK Not a nice day….Potential for snow cloud formation but also some extreme temps recorded for today…. weird weather outlook!

26th Oct-2nd November
Winter makes its presence felt with cold temps and icy conditions by 2nd. Less eventful wind wise though some breezy conditions around at start and end of phase with potential t/storm 31st. 29th-30th seem the best days of this phase in UK

27th Mists fogs cloud likely early morning winter showers, heavy at times. Quick outbursts 4-6pm clearer outlook from lat evening though more precip expected after midnight
28th Early mists fog cloud around could clear later, quick winter showers with high levels of precipitation expected between 4-6pm
29-30th Seem better days with sunshine expected along with drier conditions…westerlies blowing things dry but on 30th
winter showers again 6-9pm,
31st Could be thundery at break of day with prolonged heavy rain but clearing as day progresses.
1st Showers from early 2-3 am, rainy or cloudy sunrise give way to sun spells later in day with nebulous breezes blowing
2nd Quick heavy showers expected. Unsettled system flowing our way could even be snow on high ground Very cold conditions but some sunny outbursts as well to ward off the cold. Breeziness prevails…..

2nd-10th November
Weather system hitting N and W Scotland from first two days of this phase and we can expect unsettled weather with heavy precipitation at times along with thundery outbreaks for some regions….again! Might be wrong….
2nd as above
3rd Intermittent sudden showers potential for snow for exposed places, but we get some sunshine along with icy pockets
4th Misty or cloudy start clearing later in the day still very cold with risk of winter showers
5th Seasonal lows arriving, intermittent showery periods
6th Very heavy precipitation expected, icy cold, late at night winter showers arriving…
7th Mists mizzle and drizzle travels eastwards, cloudy day
8th-10th Strong risk of very heavy downpours, thunderstorms for some localities with a system moving around UK from 8th, extremely icy conditions and winter showers could bring snow for us by 9th. I expect headline making weather for this event, could be SE winds bringing in snow blizzards and other nasty weather conditions that creates problems….

10th-18th November
Outlook is windy again but the extra icy Siberian lows arrive from now on into December…….Snow around from outset of this phase…

A quick tour for this phase gives icy conditions strong windy weather with wet spells with southern half of England getting the worst of the conditions. Snow sleet and winter showers along with westerlies expected for 11th before sunrise, fairer outlook 12-14th, but some gusty westerlies around 13th hail showers around. and freezing conditions.
15th Looks stormy but milder temps and more winter showers continuing into early 16th with tiny let up in iciness, Strong gusty westerlies from 17th very icy conditions from 18th with cold making record levels for headlines no doubt for South UK for this phase……Note that predominantly freezing conditions rule this phase……

18th-25th November
Another Supermoon period extremely close with EQ potential on 24th so an eventful time on the weather globe…… I expect heavy levels of precipitation in a short space of time and flood for some regions of the UK, we can also expect some sunshine along with the showers though so not all is lost….22nd is a very unsettled day and heralds bad conditions….but some of the worst of the weather is expected by 20th and severe conditions raging 22 -24th Flash flood likely with drains overflowing and under stress….don’t go potholing as underground caverns will be treacherous at this time…..but Caves and falls at Ingleborough should look stupendous with this amount of rain gushing out of them….. Some sunshine between showers to start, but gets worse as days ear on for this phase….some real weather spectacles around…
18th Icy cold frost snow still on ground with risk of more showers mid day and evening some sun spells during the day could be freezing fogs and mists around by evening….EQ alert for next few days
19th Sunshine and showers mostly, slightly milder temps (but still cold) to allow slight thaw N W prevail but some south and easterly flows can add to the mix auguring unsettled conditions to arrive.
20th EQ seimicity still active some sunny spells today temps less sever, winter showers 2-4am and later at night from 23;00 when they can be prolonged
22nd Winter showers around from last night into early morning becoming intermittent. Strong winds around if not blizzards to some regions and these can be prevalent over net few days…. be on a weather alert fro this weather before making unnecessary journeys…
23rd Very heavy downpours, this looks like more snow, from early morning and prolonged, moving around UK bringing flash floods that hit the headlines due to overworked drains and overflow basins…..Expect a lot of precip in a short space of time to cause these floods…
25th Freezing again and some record lows achieved in parts of UK so roads will be icy and dangerous take care…..

25th Nov -2nd December
Some regions may see prolonged spells of precipitation as NW England and Scotland experienced the last time we had these weather factors from 17th May this year, when high speed gales raged as well…….I only have 80% confidence in this phase forecast due to wind charts not playing ball with moisture charts!

25th Freezing conditions with record lows could be too cold to rain but expect frosty ground with some sun spells for daytime. 26th Cold, frosty risk of icy showers in the afternoon but generally some sun spells as well. Could be blustery breezes for us as well
27th Some winter showers arrive from midnight to early this morning especially to western regions Freezing but dry and sunny day some icy air flows
28th Similar to yesterday but risk of icy showers late evening frosty conditions prevail overall.
29th Risk of showers before sunrise sunshine during the day
30th Misty or cloudy start risk of drizzle spells during day clearing by evening temps less severe but still icy
1st Daytime seems sunshine with cloud but evening there is likelihood of showery outbreaks heavy at times
2nd Returns to cold icy and quite frankly brass monkeys should beware….

2nd December-10th
Oh what a shame it isn’t May 2010 when these significations brought fab hot weather….dream on……..if you thought the weather was cold ……then you need to wise up to the Siberian conditions I expect to come our way….but my sheepskin boots should now come in handy….My note say ARCTIC for 5th….
Brief tour expect snow…I do…..At outset snow already lying on ground frost for some regions if not snow, and this will be added to significantly for 4th and 7th when there looks to be more risk of heavy snowfall……
2nd Nice day after snow/frost early morning
3rd Too cold for anything should be sunny though
4th Heavy snow expected
5th Arctic conditions reign
6th Bright day freezing cold
7th Frosty or snowy start, heavy snow likely by mid morning, some easterlies kicking in
Snow looks to be moving west from 7th some northerlies add to cold on 9th more snow and icy conditions possible on 10th……..wrap up warm, buy a sled, get the ice skates out and enjoy the outdoor life………some lovely skies around in spite of the ice and snow…..

10-18th December
Unsettled conditions again fogs and mist around probably freezing…some frost and snow still lying around from last phase. 10th could be too cold for the snow to arrive as forecast……..but if it does then mid day is likely time to expect it. Temps plunge even further so wrap up warmly

11th Some freezing mists and fog potential across valleys clearer skies by evening but icy weather, snow looks to be arriving to North of Scotland coming down from the Arctic area….Bbbrrrrr….. and is travelling south
12th Cold, mist even drizzle and mizzle frost or snow late at night with transport routes struggling to do their job especially to NW Scotland
13th Icy hail sleet and rain arrive by late morning looks like blizzards are likely for some UK regions….North and West most likely to be affected……..Wet day generally potential for more snow attempts late afternoon, but clearer skies by late evening but this means cold and icy conditions on the road….
14th Clearer skies, sunny some southerlies bringing in changing conditions turning south early later gusty by 15th
15th Intermittent outbreaks after a frosty start, short showery spells coming in with S Easterlies some thawing likely late afternoon but temps create potential for more snow to arrive….cold enough to snow…..
16th Looks like more snow for 17 35 temps icy though but right for snow late afternoon eve and winds turn South westerly strong at times with potential for more blizzards
17th continues unsettled showery from 1-3 am and sunny spells later freezing cold winds northerly and nippy
18th Winter showers after 4 am more travel disruptions expected………………

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