Solstice 2013-Winter2014 UK Long Range Weather Forecast

ViewGrasmereAllen BanksHello All
Sorry for the late posting of the next season’s weather but here it is. I have to say it is getting harder to deliver these as the years go by due to so many commitments, but hopefully you are still reading and testing the forecasts.

These forecasts were done in November 2013, and I did race through quite a few, so hoping they are not too wildly out!

Happy Reading.

table of winds17th-24th December

Fine sunny out breaks, but very icy cold 8th- 11th some wind to breezy turning windy again throughout. Easterlies around by 11th showing some cloud developing that interrupts fair play. Potential for showers for us as well by 11th but I don’t expect these to be heavy at all. Sunshine and cloud for 12th onwards while 13th sees fair turn to cloudier with easterlies coming in late evening, 14th is still cold due to whippy westerlies, but at least the cloud and gloom from 11th eventually gets blown on its way so we can expect brighter skies for 14th onwards, but frost sleet and snow showers could still be around for 14-15th brought in with winds, whilst 15th brings in exhilarating air, blue skies and some good photography conditions so get your camera out. By 16th temps much milder with thawing taking place to ground.

17th-24th December

The run up to Christmas sees temperatures reaching icy cold and freezing conditions with some extremes for this phase in NW areas, especially NW Scotland feeling the worst of the weather. A low sends air masses circulating eastwards starting a few hundred miles North of Scotland and moving slowly but surely southwards as the week progresses, bringing in blizzard potential, even tempestuous conditions to some coastal areas that can interfere with traffic conditions. Drive carefully…….
Night times see skies clearing with low cloud cover leaving exposure to extremely cold weather, frost and ice, but some lovely sunrises at the first half for photographers to enjoy.

Snow/frost coverings from the outset left over from 16th will provide many a white landscape to delight in. 20th-21st sees a stormier outlook developing generally

!7th/18th looks too cold to snow wrap up warmly for this big freeze continuing, sunshine with variable cloud around. Winter showers likely for afternoon 18th localised flurries on 17th
19th Big freeze continues, some sunshine variable cloud temperatures beginning to ease away from freezing
20th Slowly increasing cloudiness with easterlies fetching in some muggy conditions and it becomes cold enough for snow so I expect hail sleet and snow to arrive in varying intensities as the day progresses.
21st Is extremely unsettled from former days and heavier cloud formation is likely with an all weather day expected. Snow likely for NW, Scotland and high regions with mists forming to valleys and watery areas as temps get milder and humidity swarms around. Some southerlies in the mix aid thawing on temps of previous days. Expect sleet, snow showers, localised and sporadic, with North Westerlies kicking in later in the day trying to clear things up.

22nd Less unsettled
23rd Mists and fogs with mizzles around especially to western coastal regions from early morning. A damp day and temps less freezing and sporadic showery outbreaks later in the day.

24th A fair start around sunrise, clouds forming with the cold moving ever southward. Some wintery shower outbreaks potential during the afternoon.

25th Looks like whippy westerlies for Christmas day and the likelihood of a wind funnel or mini tornado to the southern regions but read on for news of Christmas weather>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

25th December 2013 Christmas week

Will it snow for Christmas? Usually it doesn’t and we are all disappointed, as a white Christmas is such a rarity in these parts. However, read on to find out what the chances are.

I am banking on a 99% chance of snow to some parts of the UK on Christmas Day, and I also expect to get some for West Yorks and yonder….

The last time I looked at a chart with some of the triggers operative I see for this phase, we got flood warnings to over 30 rivers in Wales, power lines coming down and gales up to 100mph in Scotland so how different will this phase be to that I wonder?

I think we are in for rough ride weather wise with some main routes under assault and this could be due to flooding, though winds will be very lively as well, activating potential for communication lines to be affected, and so hold onto your garters!

Happily the coldest of conditions we experienced nearly a week ago, goes south leaving milder temps than last phase with thawing to those watery places under freeze.

25th Mild vying with colder temps with strong westerly winds, gales likely to some western areas, NW Scotland particularly, biting and cutting wherever they blow. Wind funnels, spouts and even nr mini tornadoes to south and midlands areas are possible.. Certainly strong and at times high speed winds blow, on higher regions especially, and air traffic can be disrupted due to bad atmospherics. These winds can bring in isolated sleet and snow flurries, or even blizzards to some UK localities.

26th Some broody easterlies could see off the strong winds of yesterday and we could see mists and clouds thicker near watery places, but some generally fairer wintery conditions for Boxing Day.

27th Variable cloud, some cold erratic breezes and more potential snow attempts for some localities with heavy precipitation expected arriving before mid day. This could be sleet with snow and rain. Mistiness prevails in valleys and beyond by evening.

28th Cold nippy westerlies again with a clearer outlook for late afternoon or evening.

29th Well….errr….this looks like the worst of the weather arrives all in one go. Not a good day at all with more blizzards expected, very strong winds, erratic NWesterlies along with wind driven rain sleet and snow. The temps are milder now suggesting any snow or icy stuff is thawing wildly leading to potential for flooding for some parts of the UK. High pressure..that is the drier conditions look to be in the south. These bad conditions will affect traffic and main routes. Air and communications systems will be disrupted and this pattern could continue into early 30th.

30th As above but winds should settle and some cloud clearing to blue sky could see sunshine around for many as the day wears on, although some quick short lived flurries could affect some isolated localities in sporadic bursts.

31st Temps milder, but whippy westerlies around to keep things nippy. Mists or cloud could linger early morning but the winds can clear these to let some sunshine come through.

winterscenes 2010 002

New Year : Happy 2014

The NM is perigee and normally associated with stormy weather, and I expect we have already had some headlines about this prior to this date. I see milder temps forming above Northern Ireland keeping NW regions in cloud, mists or fogs for the start of this phase, whilst snow forming off the southern tip of Iceland could reach the northern tip of Scotland and arrive down in northern parts of England during the week ahead. There will be some fair weather around as well during the second half. Famous last words….I don’t expect heavy amounts of winter outbursts to cause flooding, though the NW does look suspect! (hedging my bets until I can confirm the contra indicators for this pattern !!) With Saturn’s sojourn in Scorpio it will always be underwater caverns, drains and caves and marshy boggy areas that feel assaulted by the foulest weather, and for this phase they do look under assault.

1st Whippy westerlies, cool day but some sunshine around; at least a promise of some less wild conditions for those returning to work after the seasonal break. Temperatures will be chilly and there is a slim likelihood of quick wintery sporadic outbursts before lunch. A cloudy if not misty overnight scenario so take care if driving.

2nd Icy temps, gusty westerlies very icy to high regions such as Pennines with potential for air traffic disruption due to wrong type of icy cold and windy weather in higher altitudes! Ice and sleet around today.
3rd Icy cold but some exhilarating air outside so wrap up warm and enjoy the high.
4th Northerlies rule until evening when milder breezes arrive responding to invitation from sunshine a fair outlook though things may still be damp, I expect these northerlies will dry them out a little, but some snow flurries could arrive in the afternoon depending on where in W Yorks you live.
5th Cold and gloomy to watery places in valleys general outlook for UK is cloud dominating but it is fairer to south than to cloudier northern regions, chilly breezes and an easterly flow cloaks a little gloom over proceedings. Those easterlies need stopping don’t they, always looking on the gloomy side………
6th Colder but some fair weather in between some rather naughty little showery stuff that can bring short sharp burst of sporadic sleet, hail and even snow flurries and these may continue into evening when they will be licensed to get heavier…oh woe to those who don’t take their wellies and snow hats…
7th-8th Similar to yesterday but petering out by 8th…..which is slightly milder temps wise…thank goodness…must just go and warm my keyboard fingers……NWesterlies look to be breeding up a storm but let’s look at the next map to see what is going on…

8th-16th Jan

Last year around this time we were looking at news of avalanches to Scotland along with looking at the resignation of the Pope..a historic act….the two were not related….I don’t think….unless we attribute them both to acts of god, that good ole insurance clause get out, errm but the Scots do have a strong Popish tradition but that’s history and we were looking at the weather, so onwards and upwards…..

Thunderstorms are likely for this phase, as mentioned earlier, and it may be I am a day out with this forecast as conflicting messages would take longer to decode and I haven’t the time…..However, these break out when the Moon is in the lower heavens so around early 9th looks most suspect if one didn’t arrive overnight on 7-8th. My money is on the former but what do I know?

We get extremes of cold weather for this phase so expect that notorious ”big freeze” to kick in and keep your nose red and your toes cold and other extremities in need of major warmth therapy. Oh if only global warming wasn’t just a money making myth, that what I say……

Overall at a glance impression of my maps is that Ireland and those parts of GB near enough to that little green gem, will get the mists fog and cloud…awww…never mind just put your best smile on. SE England, that’s you down there in Kent, looks to have a low operative with easterlies brooding their way across southern parts….there they go again…those broody easterlies…….that’s unless HAARP isn’t controlling the weather yet…..

I haven’t covered all weather occurrences for W Yorks and yonder but just most of em….well it is Crimbles coming up as I race through these winter charts….

8th Seasonally mild with mists to watery places and those mentioned in the intro and some here to start the day. Electrical build up likely with thunderstorm or lightening ready to strike overnight.
9th Easterlies are active and that means more muggy conditions and the big freeze begins to make itself felt as the day wears on
10th Cold enough to snow today, variable winds scattered clouds and brief winter showery stuff to contend wit
11th A cold front hits us all and you can feel it cool and crisp under foot, temps nippy, cutting with lots of frost and ice around but some sunshine as well. Northerlies try to clear it all up and turn NW by evening.
12th The big freeze continues in fact it continues to get colder…oh no aarrgh
13th Colder still with everything frozen over…..go ice skating to make the most of this weather. Expect freezing fogs morning and evening, perhaps all day….We should get the sun laughing at us as we fall on treacherous ground….take care whilst travelling, this is record breaking stuff so watch the media start blagging about how cold it is since last year, next year sometime never, forgetting all about the ice age millennia ago…still someone has to earn a living filling in blanks don’t they…..if only that fellah had never introduced the idea of stats, wouldn’t the news be a lot more interesting?
14th-15th A tiny easing on temps and a damp atmosphere sun with cloud around might be cold enough to snow flurries with lots of frost by 15th…..definitely white landscaping around so get yer camera out that Santa bought you….
16th..needs more study but so far looks like it’s sunshine, cold and frosty sleet/winter showery stuff early morning, fogs morning and evening possible

16th-24th January
Normally the Full Moon in winter brings clear night skies that allow warmth to escape leaving us with icy temps at this time of year. We still get wintery cold temps but freeze and thaw seems to alternate as the days wear on leaving treacherous conditions behind. Air traffic can be disrupted, Lds Bfd air services could be affected for this phase with some winds creating a disturbance at high altitudes from the outset. I’m not sure if these winds also bring in sleet so fast it lowers visibility so take care.

The major pattern for this phase saw headlines to Scotland reminding us of the time Wales got stranded at Fyffe, Scotland during the wet summer of 2012, and record breaking winds to Scotland again, September the same year. Theses high winds look set to hit the east seaboard of Scotland from the outset, and blizzards could accompany these coming down central GB as cold air descends southwards. Blue skies reign to the east of GB with sunshine and drier conditions will be seen. The western parts of GB look to experience more weather upsets with the NW GB (includes Cumbria to Highland in Scotland) receive blustery snow storm potential. Isolated flooding can occur to these regions as freeze and thaw takes hold.

16th –17th Could see some freezing sleet, snow or rain to lowlands and costal areas, short sharp and not very sweet. Some mists and fogs around interfering with traffic flow. Cold and dry north westerlies around in erratic gusts, strong and forceful at high altitudes and further north such as Scotland where they could become gales. Could develop into blizzards and NW could see potential flooding as freeze and thaw takes place.

18th slightly milder, but high humidity gives rise to more mists fogs and mizzles from the birth of the day.

19th still cold and cutting and some gloomy weather around with clouds potentially shedding their weight in mists mizzles and occasional showers.

20th cool to moderate on former freeze, thawing increases, some breezes turning windy, with more snow attempts but temps could soon turn it to rain.

21st Unsettled start more electrical atmosphere as day wears on some sudden winter flurries throughout the day, some westerlies could be gusty at times later.
22nd Looks like more winter showers arrive electrical so hail, sleet likely.
23rd Sunshine with cloud , fairer to south, gloomier to north and some whippy westerlies prevailing, but conditions more settled now.

24th-30th January

The air looks exceedingly crisp across the English Channel and to western shores and very strong gusty westerlies prevailing with headlines expected possible due to affects on traffic but also comms systems.

We can expect some outburst of showers but a drier second half for this phase with sunshine……….temps less icy to first half getting cooler again after 28th.

24th Electrical air could bring in some showery conditions, but I expect a fine late evening. Gusty westerlies could bring in the rain and cause some traffic and comms problems, could even be telegraph or electricity pylons, as mentioned above.

25th Cold start. Easterlies auguring some cloud after a sunny morning, gloomier to north and clearer skies to south. Sunshine around when cloud allows.
26th Breezy, sunshine and cold clear air, milder temps erratic breezes some frost around though cloud developing during afternoon.
27th Milder temps, thawing conditions sunshine with showery outbreaks.
28th –30th some clearer skies with sunshine, colder icier conditions by 29th along with evening showers–more likely out to western parts but travelling our way, and by 30th cold ice and frost begin to reappear with potential for mists and wait for it……read on

winterscenes 2010 002

winterscenes 2010 006

30th Jan-6thFeb

OK. I didn’t spend ore than ten minutes reading this chart because on the one hand there’s some excellent outdoor air to enjoy no matter what the weather, but wrap up warmly even if you are building a snowman or decide to go on a country walk to take in the lovely air.

Conditions clear up some of the unsettled outlook on last week. There can be gentle breezes southerly in nature but some northerlies higher up that keep things mostly enjoyable, but there could also be heavy snowfall so get the sledges out …………………..just in case I have read this correctly! Certainly temps get colder again with the big freeze arriving but bringing some winter weather to play with.

30th Looks like snow and it could be heavy, moving in from the east…mild breezes to lullaby with. This looks like staying around al week.

1st Looks like a fine start but there may be some mists around late evening as temps grow slowly colder

2nd onwards the weather system remains the same with ever colder conditions making the ground crisp and crunchy underfoot, with gentle southerlies and northerlies above……
3rd could see some more fast snowfall and flurries arriving from the east.
4th Sun with cloud cold start some sunshine around colder, and mists created due to the cold lasting into early 5th Frost, snow or both around at this stage…..
6th Sun with cloud around fair weather indicated, but colder and cloudier to the north and east, fairer to the south

6th -14th Feb

A quick tour again to give taste of the weather…
Additional snowfall likely to eastern parts, other wintery precipitation heavier to western GB. Temps lower to icy freeze by 9th and can begin to be less harsh by end of phase. 8th potentially winter showers across UK..unless it becomes too cold for those!!

6th Looks like snow arrives again especially to west
7th Cooling sunshine around
8th Winter showers travelling eastwards
9th Hail, sleet, potentially snow, more to western parts, can be fast and furious and hurt!
10th Clouds or fogs and mists forming as temps get below freezing for late afternoon clearer skies with sunshine during the day
11th -13th Sporadic often localised electrical winter flurries expected but some sunshine around cloud forming however. Winter showers to east of us. Temps still icy cold
14th Valentines Day–temps less icy fine sunny day

14th-22nd Feb
A very eventful weather outcome for this phase, with some extremes in the form of wild winds combined with intensely cold fronts moving southwards, hail, sleet and snow blizzards expected.
There will also be some migrating thunderstorms with static outbursts/lightening so watch out for all the fun of the weather fair this time of year.
Normally a Full Moon is less wild with nice clearer evening skies, less loud overnight leading to very frosty starts if not freezing fogs, and we will have some of this weather to be sure. Flooding or heavy precipitation could affect areas south such as SW Midlands and South Wales regions.

So much for the overview I’ll attempt to look at daily outcomes, but no absolute guarantees with so much weather circulating it does get difficult to time and track it.

14th-16th Sees electrical storms/blizzards breaking out with hail sleet and snow blown in by high speed winds . Thunder and lightening in the mix for some localities, our region included. Intensely cold weather is moving southwards at this time Transport systems affected.
17th-18th sees varying winds cloud occasional sunshine with unsettled to 18th turning things humid leading to slightly milder but more humid weather.
19th some winter flurries in the morning, snow/frost around, mistiness to valleys. Sun with heavy cloud during the day. Easterlies bring in some gloominess with fogs/ mists expected late at night.
20th–22nd More winter showers around in the afternoon, winds could be active. Cloudiness and mists to valleys temps getting milder, thawing highly likely. More sunshine developing during the daytime over these days.

winterscenes 2010 004

22nd Feb-1st March

Another intense weather front this time with gloomy easterly lows off NE Scotland clashing with mists, fogs and gloominess and cold waves affecting various regions as they move southwards centring on middle England terrains. Mists, fogs and freezes run up eastern coastal regions to GB so airports near to those parts will experience interruptions to their timetable. Sleet or hail can soon turn frosty or then again to snow as temps range from tortuously low to moderate during this phase.
Power and comms systems affected again, some of which may have been hit by the storms of early December. Roads may also be affected by snowdrifts, and wintery showers, along with icy conditions. Basically, although a thawing time arrives it doesn’t ever leave is with the idea winter freezes are over!

Some noisy and mischievous winds around for the first few days, howling down chimneys and alleys to spook anyone wanting to listen. Sometimes strong, whippy and cutting westerlies can gust at varying speeds.

Again, due to lack of time, this is a quick tour of some of the weather expected for our region and yonder, but not exhaustive.

22nd Heavy winter showers move eastwards leaving drains under assault and flooding. Mists and heavy cloud running up east coast areas. Some exhilarating air to high altitudes, with NW biting where they blow up a speed, and some thawing on colder temps may be discernible, but generally it is still at freezing levels.

23rd 24th Snow mists and fogs with thawing and slightly milder temps

25th some respite from worst weather events more moderate systems around, but clouds getting heavier as day progresses

26th Looks a little electrical and stormy with strong winds and cold fronts developing again Precipitation looks heavier to north and south of us. Intermittent winter flurries sometimes heavy, sometimes short and sweet. For some parts the heavy precip can end up as drifts creating problems if in rural communities where sheep need tending. Cold fronts become intense to NW and rural exposed areas.

27th -1st March Sun with cloud southerlies bring in a more gentle less aggressive weather outcome but winter showery outbursts can still arrive, heavier to 28th–to east regions as well, adding to landfall already made. 1st looks like a nice sunny day……………………………….

1st March- 8th
East Anglia to North West GB seem in line for the intensity of the sudden cold fronts reigning this time around, precipitation could be higher for those parts and beyond, with some electrical if not stormy outbursts, along with strong NW winds blowing weather systems southwards giving the region more winter showers than we get, these could lead to chilly drizzle and mizzles. Erratic winds turning gusty- gales throwing throwing their weight around and some becoming strong, icy, icy, icy and speedy coming downslope from NW regions for those in Dales and living near high areas. I do expect news of thunderstorms/strong winds from the outset and these will affect electricity supplies and communication systems.

The eastern side of GB looks to be getting the more moderate temps compared to the abrupt changes to icily cold conditions that rule over the west, whilst gloomier weather look likely to be pushed southwards by strong winds.

!7th November when similar conditions ruled we were mostly dry with occasional showery outbursts, rather than constant rain, but the south did get badly hit with the gales at that time, and could encounter strong winds again this time.

Here goes…not too confident about this outcome at this stage long range….

1st Electrical and sometimes quite fair weather could try to break out today but wont be given a chance to stay I don’t think. Clouds developing, damp air cold waves wafting over, unsettled with varying cold to mod, low temps localised and sudden. Fresh outdoor air some electrical atmospheric disturbances already mentioned in the introduction to this phase.. We could see winter showery flurries around. Breeze-windy variable. Winds strong to NW and can race downslope

Showery outburst more likely evening to early morning if they arrive at your locality W Yorks for 1st-4th most likely on 3-4th with more showery attempts likely after mid day with potential for snow flurries especially in higher altitudes. 3rd is very unsettled weather wise and changeable temp wise–could be some chilly drizzly stuff around. 4th looks very cold but chance for sunshine and clearer skies

5th-8th Getting colder and crisper underfoot by 5th with mists and frosts forming due to cold temps, with air cold and crisp. Some warming factors from Sun on 6th which is breezy but dry and sunny. Increased cloud with easterlies with winter showers to the west by 7th when cloud and mists hover.

8th Extremely cold day, some warmth from sun, and breezy, sunshine could break out as well….

8th-16th March
We should be heading towards Spring at this time, but Spring doesn’t know that and is lurking longer in the cold and frost leaving us wondering when we can dig hard soil and get plants into warmer beds……………The South England sees our coldness moving their way while E shores get more showery outbreaks than we do and these look to be sudden, cold and travelling north westerly from SE coastal region, from the outset and may travel up the east coast region with a mix of some snow flurries and sleet/hail coming in from the east.

I expect this phase to be slightly drier and more settled than previously with snow turning to frost in these seasonally cold temps. Much sunshine to enjoy but not really warm enough to shout about for the first half, thawing and milder temps as the days proceed.

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