Long Range Weather Forecasting that Doesn’t Cost the Earth
In February I published my Spring Forecast on my blogs at http://www.amazingweather.wordpress.com so please visit there to keep up with the Spring long range forecast,
also on http://www.ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com where you can read feedback on previous season accuracy to verify results.
I realise some parts of W Yorks will often have rainfall or more sunshine than other parts, and due to such micros operating it is difficult to locate and forecast these within only one or two miles of each other, hence discrepancies often operating between my forecasting and localised weather micros throughout the region. Happily this is a rare perhaps once a month event, leaving an overall reasonable reliability for our regional long range outcomes.
Introduction Summer 2013 UK W Yorks and Yonder
First of all I do have to write an explanation of why it is difficult delivering 100 per cent accurate forecasts for one region such as W Yorks. For 18th March, for example, I had forecast it to be a fine start with hail before sunrise, but some mists and fogs to some localities. My locality had fogs, mists and continuous thin snow showers from very early am, clearly fulfilling the warning of fogs to some localities. I haven’t had time to see if anywhere in W Yorks got the fine start with hail, to test the fullness of the forecast. However, another forecast for 8th March was for a localised outbreak of hail and sleet, but sunshine and clear skies, cold temps and strong gusty winds. Instead we got thick cloud, gloomy, drizzly stuff with fogs later in the evening, so not a good forecast for my locality at all. HOWEVER, just a mile away, still in W Yorks going over to Otley the mists cleared to high visibility and finer weather conditions on this day, which is the locality for where my forecast was accurate. Otley and Addingham and other W Yorks towns, often deliver little micros that are difficult to pin down, and there is little I can do to prevent their weather often showing up stronger than that of other W Yorks regions on around 10 per cent of occasions. This is one reason why I don’t promise 100 per cent accuracy for my outcomes.
Summer brings six planets to the northern hemisphere so summer should have some seasonally warm temps, but 2011 had some 6 planets in the north and that brought some colder conditions comparing it to 1993 which was very very cold with only three planets north. In August Venus moves south taking spring to their hemisphere early and perhaps auguring an earlier Autumn for us.
Junes seems to begin a cycle of flooding till 22nd July when it looks at this stage as if a heatwave arrives, but don’t raise your hopes too high! Nice temperatures look set to break out for the first part of July 8th-14th approximately depending on where in the UK you live.
So we seem to begin the summer with dangers of floods for the first half followed by either a heatwave or some hot summer temperatures bringing in cracking thunderstorms. I can guarantee the thunderstorms breaking out, but not for exact locations as they will be moving around quite rapidly on occasions.……..make sure your tent is waterproofed and earthed! Mid July to end of August shows t/storms and lightening proliferating as temps get high and humid with a lot of static around.
22nd to 29th July looks a little tempestuous after some warm summer temps create a risk of static discharge and floods are likely to be in the news. This phase is reminiscent of April 2000 when rainfall was above average but Ireland got an unbeatable low of -8.2 degrees C. I don’t think we’ll be beating that temp, as this phase does look warmer than that! The eastern coast will be hit by scattered electrical outbursts from the start. Cumbria but mostly Eng/Welsh border does look vulnerable at this phase by 28-29th, so do some parts of Scotland, so I will be watching the news for outcomes. Also, we can expect news of some serious religious, financial and commercial discord at this time, with clergy and bankers as well as corporates under attack. News of more terrorist activity is also likelihood and I will be looking out for news of the sea–perhaps more piracy out there for this time of the year.
I took the following info about similar patterns for 3-4th July 2002 from the MET site to show you how this phase could pan out, as similar conditions prevail for this phase.
‘’Mean temperatures generally close to average across the whole of the UK. A very wet month across most parts, with some areas receiving three times their normal rainfall.
At Leuchars it was the wettest July since records began in 1922, with 145.8 mm. Temperatures touched 33 °C at Northolt on the 29th, with 83 mm at Marham, Norfolk on the 30th.
England and Wales diary of highlights
Unsettled and chilly first half followed by a warm dry spell, then more changeable. Hot and thundery later with some downpours and local flooding. Fresher closing days.
1st to 12th Unsettled and cool with frequent outbreaks of rain as low-pressure systems and their associated fronts traversed the region. Most days were decidedly wet especially in central and southern areas of England. The rain was often heavy and accompanied by thunder, the latter being reported on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th. Thundery showers also affected a number of places on the 10th to 12th.’’
23rd June -30th
High temperatures look likely to break out to the West of Ireland and Scotland’s West coast might benefit too for a change, helping them eliminate the gloomy conditions formerly reigning over there.
This could turn out to b a completely dry phase that sees off any bad weather, but I do see some precipitation arriving, but I can’t see heavy downpours arriving to bring floods, though it does look as if some parts of the UK could still be dealing with them at the outset due to rains of previous weeks.
Usually we can expect barbecue evenings during the Full Moon stage due to the Moon being high in the sky and warding off any rain attempts sunset to sunrise. I do, for the second half of this, see some seasonal highs arriving around second part of this phase, but some showery spells to keep you from getting too excited!
23rd as above
24th Risk of showers before sunset, but dry afterwards with some clouds, mists or haze around evening
Winds strong gusty and whipping at times NW in direction and varying speed over next few days.
25th Should be some rise in temps today but some static developing with a risk of lightening showers swarming around giving localised quick bursts. The outlook is unsettled with varying cloud cover but some sunshine expected.
26th Temps seasonally warm, some humidity, but should be a fair weather day. Risk of haziness by evening.
27th A bit unsettled but some higher temperatures built up with a risk of quick static localised showery outburst mid morning or just clouds, but temps rise again indicating a strong sunny arrival.
28th Same conditions as yesterday
29th A rainy outlook risk before sunrise continuing a risk to mid day, but after that some finer weather with refreshing air and good atmosphere to get some gardening done.
At first this chart looked like a clearer, warmer phase, but under scrutiny it became more likely that some prolonged rain could arrive to spoil the nicer patterns, so I’m not ruling out higher precip to NE regions and perhaps others, but not as heavy to our region; this outpouring could put drains under stress and bring in some localised flooding around 1st and 2nd…but hopefully I get this completely wrong…
We will get some wet spells W Yorks and Yonder, but also some lovely outbreaks of nice warm summery weather, if not highs as well, for the second half of the phase.
30th As above with some gusty south westerlies around.
1st Some sporadic sharp showery outbreaks here, but refreshing atmosphere even though dampness prevails, some leaden skies threatening to spoil things a little, with risk of a stormy outlook to NE of us with a risk of prolonged rain or showers keeping the outlook wet here as well. It could feel a little damp and chilly today as well. Showery outlook risks continuing into 2nd.
2nd Calmer outlook with some mists due to showers of yesterday, sultry conditions with potential for showers over higher areas such as the moors or just being surrounded by clouds (always a nice but spooky feeling up on the moors) cool but fresh atmospherics.
3rd Looks less wet, but mid day could see a risk of quick refreshing showery weather, some sun spells to brighten up the outlook.
4th Some cold pockets vying with warmer temps trying to break out, winds are erratic and keep things cool on high and in exposed regions, but there is also a warmer outlook growing stronger today with likelihood of sun spells.
5th NICE summery temps, blue skies and sunshine around, but a risk of quick showery outbursts for us, not sure abut the rest of the UK today though…
6th-8th Looks like the dry weather is more reliable with some nice temperatures and a brilliant atmosphere to enjoy good outdoor activity. 8th brings potential for some rainy stuff….but read on….
8th -16th July
I took some time out to look at important features for this chart and found 2 interesting record breaking incidents that wont occur during this phase…hopefully….
We have a similar chart to NM 22 June 1906 when record breaking high temperatures broke out, and though I do expect some nice seasonal highs for this phase, I don’t expect them to reach the same levels as then…..sadly, though we will get some nice warm temps hovering around–HURRAH.
I also took another look at the storm surge to Bristol and the Sun close to Mercury is supposed to bring strong winds, as in 1607, (and many times since then I might add) but I don’t see a similar storm surge, but I’m not ruling out very strong winds out to sea from 7th, and to our region on 9th. Saturn hovers around the west coast of GB from the start so it does look less sunny with lower temps there and winds look set to be strong for NW regions for the first few days, but then Silverdale in the NW can be a real wind tunnel any time of year………………………….
Photographers can expect some good visibility for the first few days as well, so get out your camera.
Temperature wise I expect seasonal highs to break out for the first part of this phase, with cooler temps after 13th
8th Sunshine around during the day with risk of quick scattered showers by evening. Temps should be warm today, the atmosphere should be clear, but cold pockets to exposed regions, and some strong gusty brisk westerlies could ward off the real highs. I do expect some sunshine today…..
9th Looks glorious for us with even higher temps ruling the day but some I’m afraid of a risk of very strong gusts and windy weather around, but this keeps things dry and hurries along any rain clouds that might try to spoil the UV count! Could be news of static outburst to west of us with mists or haze due to warming.
10th Cloudy if no0t gloomy start. More sunshine and some cloud likely but also blue skies around, some static could trigger localised sprays.
11th Temps still seasonally warm and rising, particularly south of us with perhaps lower pressure to the north, with risk of quick localised scattered cloudbursts
12th Things begin to unsettle a little today, temps still fair to moderately high, but could be cooler than previous days , Cloudy if not hazy early in the day and late at night, but fairer outlook during the day, some nebulous breezy conditions also.
13th Seismic conditions to East Asia, Japan regions today, I expect a sunny and warm outlook to prevail, but unsettled atmosphere with stronger N Westerlies
14th Risk of early showery stuff by mid day, but these look heavier to the west, sunny with isolated colder pockets for us in shady places, but less so by mid day.
15th Similar to yesterday with risk of quick sharp showery stuff if not hail by eve and potential for mist or haziness late evening. Breezy if not windy
16th A fair outlook, but very unsettled and lots of static forming, but winds to N West , could even be gales or stormy to highlands and news of thundery outbursts– late evening here read on for the next chapter in this weather story………………..
There are still some lovely almost tropical weather pockets around and Derry in Ireland looks likely to be where some of the good weather is, but so do John o Groats and Glucestershire regions, but this could turn around by 21/22nd when some cracking t/storms break out and some flash flooding is a risk.
I expect high levels of precipitation to arrive, and compete with records for July 2002 when three times the amount of average rainfall broke out and caused floods. I also expect a rash of higher than usual outbreaks of thunder and lightening storms
I’m not too happy with my forecast for this phase due to so many contradictory factors between highs and static outbursts travelling around and they are difficult to follow demanding a lot of time and more charts which I don’t have time to do, so no promises…………….but for us I do expect heavy rain to hit by 21st but we also get some nice days to enjoy with some good temps, though not as high as previously, but still seasonally pleasant…The 18th-20th look like being more reliable for good weather outcomes
16th-17th Still appears lower temps could be NE, E Anglia looks well served with good weather, some warm weather around our parts creates risk of scattered migrating electrical outbursts overnight into 17th, heavy downpours accompany these, hopefully most of us will sleep through this, but some flash floods may result. Northern areas most prone to these outbreaks; including Scotland. 17th looks fine and sunny with warm temps around to keep us cheered up
18th -22nd Some cooling begins but 19th looks nice fair and sunny whilst 20th seems static with hazes forming, some muggy conditions around today and tomorrow. Some static lightening and thunder outbursts– highly probable over these days. 21st brings in high risk of downpours before or around mid day, these are very heavy as temps begin to rise again and some strong very gusty variable speed N Westerlies. Mid day 21st looks like the sun could shine through with a fine weather outlook for the afternoon, but the evening runs a risk of more heavy rain which could continue into 22nd cooling the atmosphere before sunrise, due to a very unsettled weather system breaking out warning of possible electrical outbursts accompanying rising temps, but the skies could clear easily leaving room for cloud but some sunshine and if you are resuming outdoor activity….take your brolly for these outbursts. Flash floods risk but some very warm trends also and should be a nice evening..read on
22nd July-29th July
In my dreams this is summer breaking out with at least barbecue evenings even if there is some cloud around during the day……..BUT, as I said this only happens in my dreams……
This weather phase left me exhausted, as if a tempest passed over! A lot of exciting weather to come.
This is the time of year when the sun is furtherest away from our planet and we often see a drop in temps and bad weather as if even the clouds above are grieving over the fact that school is out!
We do have a perigee on 21st, with Full Moon on 22nd so some of the warmer temps should be ruling both hemispheres. The East of England looks to be getting some fine summer sun with warm trends of summer temps (does it ever rain in Norfolk?) whilst the west is experiencing some low pressure with cooler temps, and this will change completely around by the end of this phase.
There is a risk of flash flooding due to risk of above average but torrential and quickly dispelled cloudbursts, the western regions from Keswick in a line down to Gloucestershire are most vulnerable towards the end of this phase, but Eastern coast of England down to Cambridge and beyond to Kent at the outset get hit by some spectacular lightening electrical storms.
Best headlines seem likely to come in from the West of us….
21-22 as already mentioned this appears to be when cloudburst break in between higher range of temperatures, the east from Whitby, Grimsby to Cambridgeshire and beyond looks the best region for these scattered outbursts, and down to Devon areas there does look to be some conflicting weather systems with electrical outbursts accompanying some lovely warm temps. Expect an unsettled outlook with localise warmth then sudden pockets of cooling after showers for these two days, with lightening showers, heavy at times but very heavy for some as soon as they begin and leaving clearer skies in their wake as they travel onwards. We wont be as badly affected in our region and we can expect some cloudburst but also some sunshine between the clouds, 22nd looks cooler for us, some sun spells expected and a finer evening so get ready for a good evening walk…or drinking al fresco
23rd looks better though some mistiness and hazes could prevail but some sunshine in between with clearer night skies. A risk of a quick spurt of showery stuff before sunrise warmer muggy trends today.
24th Similar to yesterday with shower risk more likely around mid afternoon but it could turn out to be just some cloud coming over. Temps moderate, getting warmth if you see the sun and some southerly flows of weather coming over, gusty breezes at times.
25th Risk of short but heavy showers after start of day and before sunrise but it could just be mists or haze I’m seeing. Milder to cool conditions for the daytime, should be sunshine but cloud around as well. Seems like some pathways could be getting muddy….
26th News of weather system hitting the west today/tomorrow– Cumbria down Welsh borders and up to West of Scotland likely to be facing up to the worst of the weather being seen on satellites, with a risk of some flash floods. Temps very muggy and tropical rains could be localised for some areas inland with easterlies around keeping things a bit broody, and news of mudslides a risk so don’t walk near muddy cliffs or take care on high ground where footpaths need careful scrutiny.
I expect fogs, mists and haze overnight, more predominant to west, after some fairer evening weather for us.
27th Risk of showers for us 5-8am temps more humid than cold,, sun with cloud expected by afternoon, clearer evening sky,some broody easterlies along with southerly flows still knocking around posing a risk of quick showery outbursts which could continue into the next day…
28th A dull start before sunrise. Humidity levels high some mist and haze to west and around watery places and coastal regions, strong winds for some quarters, fine and sunny and warm for the afternoon with sun spells for us, but a quick cloud burst could stop play around 3-6pm but it will leave things feeling fresher afterwards.
29th Sorry but this looks like even more rain increasing risk of flash flooding from west to east and our region. Very windy outlook as well, I can’t rule out some strong winds accompanying weather trends 28th-29th……..wet wet wet…….is the theme but it will clear up the muggy trends and leave the atmosphere refreshed and by late afternoon on 29th it does look like the rains are further east of us leaving us to a drier outlook for the afternoon and eve. Cool temps 29th and we could see some blue skies around with sunshine.
Sorry to say my charts look like floods are likely to be continuing from last phase, with more heavy rain to add to the chaos for this phase. Hopefully I’m wrong, but astrologers have a rule, see a thing three times and positively predict, and there are three signifiers for heavy rain and floods evident, but it could be they are already over by 30th…let’s see…..
29th looks showery adding to high levels already falling, heavier to the north travelling east and causing flash floods…Suffolk looks to be getting some rain today as well Wind activity is easterly so a bit broody weather to be expected.
30th A better outlook, cooler due to rain in previous days, but exhilarating atmosphere with coolness pervading it. Sun with cloud expected.
31st More scattered outbreaks, moderate temps, for the afternoon cloud and quick but heavy showers. Mists haze or cloud by evening some sun might break through.
1st Aug. Risk of showers by breakfast, very unsettled outlook, some muggy conditions and risk of static outbursts today and these may be around very early, milder by middle of day, but it does look like late evening has some lovely clear skies for stargazers such as myself. Some strong gusty N Westerlies around today to keep things drying out
2nd. Moderate temps getting warmer, risk of heavy showers by late evening and into following morning, potentially a fair weather outlook during the afternoon.
3rd Looks like better summer conditions today with any outbursts staying off till evening if they do arrive to your locality.
4th Wind speed increased to eastern parts, but some N Westerlies bring down cooler temps today cool but dry weather, electrical outburst to high regions and northern areas. The afternoon looks cool but with sun spells, cloudier later.
5th Slightly milder today, breezy though could turn out to be a dry fair day with some warmth from sun in the afternoon.
6th 6-8th look like similar to 5th. Fairer days, breezy southerlies around turning NW by 8th, some cooling on 7th but very unsettled outlook for 8th
Could this be a nice phase???
Although I studied the chart for hours and researched some unusual features in it, I found the outcome so difficult to define and I do not have a lot of confidence in it at all.
When we have a New Moon we normally get the drier weather during the day and any precipitation at evening and overnight. I don’t see excess precipitation for this phase, but the temperatures are not reliable either, nor are reliable unbroken sunny days.
At first the chart looked sunny glorious and warm, and for sure the 10th looks the most likely for this, but there are some dangers of showery and misty weather spoiling continuously clear days or prolonged sunny conditions.
Apologies if this doesn’t work out the way I forecast at this stage long range on February 20th 2013!
6th-8th look like fine days with some lovely weather to enjoy on 6th as mentioned in previous phase.
8th looks a little more unsettled with more warming around and southerlies
9th seems to have some risk of showery weather but more for the southern regions. Some good visibility around pm and evening with brisk westerlies combining with easterly flows, gusty at times continuing into tomorrow.
10th seems to be very warm and humid and a risk of hazes or mists near watery places and in valleys overnight tonight, temps mild but could be very warm if not very high, generally a fair outlook.
11th Mists and risk of muggy start today but developing into some fair conditions which sees some varying trends on cloud and temps, easterlies and some dull gloomy skies by late afternoon and evening.
12th Some mists or cloud still lingering and today sees high risk of showery weather, but skies clearer by the afternoon.
13th Another showery outlook for today around sunrise, mugginess around from early morning which looks to be quite warm, the afternoon looks better.
14th brings in some gusty westerlies combined with easterlies turning NW by 15th when they promise to get very strong, Sun with cloud expected… read on………….
14th August -21st
Mostly dry with some static outbursts of hail and sharp showers, some mists and some wind disturbances with sporadic static outbursts for 15-16th, these can be heavy to some localities, hail to others and accompanied with thunder and lightening for others. Weather will better to south England and cloudier to the north.
The worst of the weather hits the southern hemisphere for these days….
14th I’m expecting warmth in the sun, temps moderate but rising gently, fresh atmosphere, with fleecy clouds, but some unsettled winds begin to come in
15th Erratic and gusty if not high speed to north west, this can bring a sudden drop to bring in colder temps to high ground and exposed areas. Clearer skies by late evening, fresh atmosphere white fluffy clouds in blue sky, but a risk of localised and sporadic hail or sharp shower weather due to clash with warm and cold air as warned in the introduction.
16th Cooler outlook some scattered electrical showers, risk of high speed winds and or gales for some regions, acute and sharp cutting gusty westerlies along with scattered static outbursts.
17th similar to yesterday but winds less volatile, still some unsettled conditions but a cool sunny outlook could prevail with some gusty weather.
18th Similar to yesterday with some warmth from sun at mid day but a risk of a shower to freshen things up
19th and 20th localised showery outlook rising temps by 20th calm with potential for mists to form particularly likely early on 20th, due to high humidity, but by late evening on 20th some fair weather outlook some cloud around.
21st More winds likely, high speed to high locations, cool outlook though some warmth during the day, static sporadic outbursts can arrive to keep temps on the lower side, better outlook by evening read on
21st 28th August
Cooler temperatures begin to arrive, with some mizzles drizzles for us, as well as some mists and fogs. The whole of the UK sees rain moving around 21st-22nd and some strong winds are expected keeping temps low even if the sun does try to shine. East Anglia looks to get some of the highs that remain on a diagonal flow up to NW Scotland from the outset, and the NW region Cumbria could also see some of these but a risk of fogs and mists arises from this system following the trail of any warmth.
21st-22nd Rapid static outbursts of sleet and sharp showers, high velocity winds with rain heavier to southern areas, radio disturbances from previous days continue for a few more days accompanying static outbursts. Northerlies operate trying to ward off heavier downfalls and the evening on 21st looks like some sunshine gives us a pleasanter evening. Overall the outlook is cool with winds much stronger and erratic by 22nd onwards accompanying rainfall circulating the UK.
23rd Intermittent short sharp showers, hail to some localities short sharp and swift, cutting but some blue skies and sun spells likely but very cold temps for us.
24th Very cold pockets , similar to yesterday more cloud around by late evening, if not mists and fogs.
25th Humidity high, clouds and risk of fog, damp conditions with mizzles and drizzly outbursts, winds very strong gusty westerlies, sudden localised squalls break out along canal banks and river ways in valleys, localised but very strong and can last up to one or two hours before settling down. Patchy fog and mists likely especially by late evening when they can be thicker creating transport probs due to low visibility.
26th Cloudy dull with easterlies early in the morning looking broody, a cold outlook, but some fairer outlook by mid day, sun with cloud around, risk of a sudden outbursts of localised sleet and hailstorms late afternoon, cold evening and could be some frost to wake up to next day
27th The outlook is clearer for today fairer weather to the north, some cloud to start with but clearing and a fresher atmosphere but some unsettled if not stormy conditions to follow……….
28th August -5th September
I get to this stage realising I try so hard to find some glorious uninterrupted sunny spells that it would be nice to just ignore the bad bits and pretend the highs that appear in some of the charts this phase, will not be interrupted by anything windy or wet…….in your dreams..
East Anglia to Kent look set to get some lovely highs, but then they always do……the best of the temps for the ending of summer occur mid ocean half way between Hull and Rotterdam, so book your ferry now……..
Back here in W Yorks and yonder, a different picture emerges, but we do get some warm weather if not constantly sunny days to come and the 5th does look rather pleasant……
28th –30th have high humidity with likelihood of fogs by night, with mists and hazes hanging around threatening to obscure the sunshine by day. Some breeziness turning easterly and broody on 29th. The 30thwith winds turn strong, erratic and very speedy at times, and gusty turning westerly then northerly by late at night on 30th, fetching some coolness down from the north. Cloudiness forming during the day on 3oth, and a risk of rain coming in with the winds, the northerlies clear skies overnight into early start 31st producing some white woolly clouds and clearer skies for early morning 31st, and late at night promises better conditions for the south of our region, but cloudier the further north you get,
31st During the day looks like seeing a risk of static outbursts, sporadic potential for localised thunderstorms for some regions, these cloudbursts look sporadic for us during the day and late at night.
1st-5th Rain travelling south to east regions but we could see some heavy outbursts by late evening on 1st for W Yorks regions.
2nd onwards look like better days some mists and hazes could linger but temps set to still be summery and warm but humid 4th onwards, and a fine evening looks to break out on 4th. It looks breezier for this half with things cooling a little at night with air frosts likely overnight. 3rd is static hazy and humid with some darker clouds forming mid day, better weather by evening with a crisp and fresher outlook. 5th looks lovely at this stage….and from yesterday we could be in for those fine evenings when people sit out and enjoy convivial refreshment al fresco…..but read on>>>>>>>>>
This looks like a drier phase with some sunshine around to remind us of summer. There are echoes of September 2011 when we had a heatwave for the last throes of summer, but don’t expect that on this occasion, and remember that there were some very strong winds around as well as rain as a result of that unusually warm weather.
Overall this phase looks drier until we get to the 10th when some precipitation looks likely to come in from the western parts hitting them worse than our region. Some strong winds could create problems for some regions for this phase also.
5th-6th Looks fair for us with some fine seasonally high temps on 5th, but there can also be sudden drops in temperatures so don’t take any warmth from the sun for granted, and if you are fell walking the drops will hit the tops first before descending downwards to valleys where areas in shadow will feel chilly. Cloudiness could set in from late evening on 6th
7th looks cloudy from the turn of the day but then it looks better from perhaps sunrise with some fair weather beckoning you into outdoor activity for the morning of the day and beyond with some warmth from the sunshine, but with some gusty outbursts.
8th A misty or cloudy start, lower temps and risk of some dullness but some sun spells expected for the afternoon, more cloudy possibly misty again by late evening.
9th A breezy outlook with some trends for more turbulent weather for some regions with strong gusty winds. Sun with cloud for the early part of the day, some warmth from sun, but clouds forming late evening warn of rain risk ahead.
10th-12th Strong, breezy if not windy, a fair start to the day on 10th but things getting duller as day progresses with a risk of rain arriving later in the afternoon and evening with more precipitation likely on following days. Some mists near waterways can be expected.
The weather gets very busy for this phase and my satellite technology shows highs reigning across from Cornwall to the N E coast at Whitby, and anyone on that line across England can expect the best of a mini heatwave for a couple of days.
12th-13th Temperatures may be a little bit lower to the east to start with where some NW keep things cool, but some blue skies are left behind in their wake leaving a warm glow in the sunshine. I expect a little cloud to form by evening, but we should see some sunshine breaking out all over.
14th Today sees more highs but unsettled with likelihood of some quick static outbursts of hail and sleet in response to higher temps on previous days. It is calm misty/cloudy and sultry to begin the day, gusty North Westerlies rev up and can become strong for some regions in exposed areas to the west and north, mid day should be fine for us with a risk of showery outbreaks to high places. I’ll be looking to see if we get Fohn winds at this time of the phase, these are nice warm breezes that feel like someone left the hair drier on…..the hail storms are more likely late afternoon and evening. I do expect sunshine for daytime.
15th-16th is when the fun starts, but there should still be sunshine around the middle of the day on 15th. We can expect some static outbursts with scattered hailstorms late afternoon becoming strong overnight, with severe outbursts scattered, sporadic and intermittent, more intense to NW and Scotland as a cold front comes in to fight with the sultry conditions of previous days. Some strong gusty winds of varying speed with a breeding ground for localised tornadic outbursts, these storms can affect comms systems and air travel. There should be some blue skies around as well during the daytime.
17th shows very strong gusty westerlies, a mild start but much cooler by late afternoon with an unsettled outlook due to fast moving clouds which may prevent sun from getting through
18th-19th Stormy weather can be moving northwards, broody easterlies with risk of fogs and mists, and to be honest it does look like some heavy rain begins to fall late afternoon and evening on 18th, if it doesn’t then I’m just looking at some very dull leaden skies with risk of drizzle and mizzly stuff and cooler northerlies breaking out on 19th trying to clear things up. The NW looks to be worst hit by the precipitation on these days.
Do visit my website http://www.starsite.org.uk to find out more about long range weather forecasting with astro-meteorology the satellite system of forecasting weather successfully used since prehistoric times, a system tool that brings no harm to the planet for earth friendly weather forecasting….whoops, thouhg weather can bring in a few devasting effects now and again of course!!