GENERAL THEME WINTER 2012-2013
Nearly two years ago, during Feb 2011, Ken Paone, a very skilful US astro-meteorologist asked me to take a look ahead at this UK winter to see what I could forecast very long range. I took a look at the chart for our UK region and beyond, and came up with this forecast which has been featured on his website:- http://theweatheralternative.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=UK+Winter+2012-2013
See this link showing that the very long range prediction for snow for October 2012, posted Feb 2011 on Ken’s site, has already come true by 25th October 2012 for Northumberland:- http://travel.aol.co.uk/2012/10/26/snow-england-october-2012-weather-arctic-blast/ Not bad to say I forecast that nearly two years ago using time honoured astro met techniques, on a limited budget without access to trillions of pounds worth of satellite dishes:-)
That forecast posted on Ken’s website will continue to manifest, though clearly the floods I foretold that Saturn would bring have already broken out across the UK with Scorpionic vengeance, as I expected, leaving the ground very soggy, with landslides to some southern areas especially, even before the Winter begins in full.
We can expect higher range of levels of snow for the season, and extremely frosty, freezing, temps will be around in January and February with strong northerlies keeping them bitingly chilling when they blow.
I expect blizzards, high speed winds and gales raging around the UK centring around 27th Jan-3rd Feb depending on which part of the UK you live. 5th-11th January also looks lively!
3rd Feb -10th Feb sees some freaky weather arrive, to keep global warming theories alive and well, with fogs, mists and unusually warm micro pockets of weather migrating eastwards forming off the west coast of Ireland, but one of the regions I’ll be tracking at this phase is 170 E and 51N regions where some turbulence looks to be causing headlines. This could be landslides like the ones hitting headlines currently (November 2012–and note in my forecast for Ken Paone 2 yrs ago nearly, I sadi to expect seismic and bad weather for this month)) in Japan where a tunnel collapsed due to unusual weather systems there. I also expect aquatic life to be under threat more than ever due to this freaky weather system and seismic/volcanic activity could add to the mix.
Perigee moons for 10th January and 7th February have a tendency to bring in hurricanes to the northern hemisphere during winter, so says weather expert Ken Ring in NZ, and the 10th January perigee coincides with a powerful NM making it a powerful syszgy/supermoon that can create high turbulence in the atmosphere, so watch hurricane headlines break out along with the extremes of stormy weather. The 3rd-10th Feb or beyond, depending on where you are located, also brings more wild weather in the northern hemisphere. This is going to be spectacular watching for all of us weather freaks.
Looking back at temps for the past 100 yrs 2013 looks like competing successfully with 1979 range of minima temps set at -23.5 for Feb 1979, and 14th Jan 1979 and -24.6 13th Jan 1979 and -16.5 19th March 1979, so track the low temps expected for this season to see how they score against these. My forecast for coldest conditions arriving is for freezing cold 22nd Jan to the end of the month, bringing in snow, ice, frost and big freeze, and another very cold spell from 17th Feb for a week approx with hail, sleet and snow, 17th March for a few days also brings in coldest weather for the month.
Spring breaks through in style in March (see forecast for the month below) and it finally settles in after 23rd, but I expect drier conditions to break through after 14th heralding a drought phase visiting us for the Spring season.
20th December -28th 2012
It’s Christmas so you’ll want to know if it will be a white one. I don’t expect so for us, though I’m not discounting one for you if you live on the Scottish Highlands to NW of Scotland, or high up on the Pennines and other peaks where it can lie around for months after it has left the rest of us alone. However, Jonathan Powell says it will snow for Christmas in a November issue of the Express online which may still be accessible at :- http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/359493/Odds-are-on-a-White-Christmas
Variable conditions ranging from wet to cool and dry. Icy winter showers moving east after high precipitation from previous days raise levels of water masses, causing some flood outbursts.
Normally we could expect clearer skies mid day to midnight generally. Expect some icy winter showers leaving treacherous conditions to some highways with flood for some UK areas potentially NW Scotland and Wales along with snow news arriving fro higher altitudes Temps get colder to freeze by 29th……affecting air travel with mists and fogs affecting midlands and southern region from 21st.
Only 75% confident of this phase forecast. Normally I expect above 80% accuracy for my long range predictions.
20th Sudden icy showers, sleet frost and snow combine by evening 4-6pm some sun with cloud during the day.
21st Brisk breezes cold drier outlook sunshine around, evening skies clearer, solstice today, so very hot in Australia, not so for us!
22nd Cloudy start, fast sudden showery outbreaks around 8-10 am bright outlook for the afternoon. Potential for mists and mizzles or even freezing fog in some localities in our region late eve.
23rd Damp air predominates, sun with cloud preventing temps being too biting, southerlies in lower atmosphere with northerlies in higher strata. Temperate conditions prevail for us and this could out to be a serene day….
24th showery outbreaks expected app 4-7pm and again 8-11pm, daytime sun with cloud.
25th Cloudy or misty start, dampness heavy, sudden showery outbursts by evening .Humidity high breeding possibility of mists and fog with likelihood of sudden showery outbursts or mizzles 3-6pm.
26th Sunshine with showery outburst, but these could be wetter to southern areas, here any likely outbursts likely 12 -2am.
27th Milder conditions, sunshine with cloud during the day less unsettled than previous days. Cloud around on 27th, overnight cloud keeps temps less icy. 28th similar
29th Dec winter showers, dark air with wet cloudy outlook
Full Moon 28th Dec-5th Jan 2013.
An overview for this weather phase, rather than a day to day tour. Some spells of serene conditions for the first part of the phase, sunny during the day, though frosty starts could greet the day, some mild outbursts of showers could also arrive.
I expect colder conditions to arrive 3 days into this phase when it will be mostly cold, mainly dry with sunshine during the day for the most part, the cold starts to be noticeable by 31st with freezing over of watery areas by 3rd.
We will see some brisk breeziness with the lower temps, especially on very high ground, some mists around watering places also likely.
3rd brings some blustery and bleak conditions with penetrating cold, stratus clouds around, and isolated strong gusts on high ground. 4th-5th can bring in milder conditions dry and sunny.
5th-11th January 2013
My expert colleague in weather forecasting, Ken Ring NZ, says we can expect more snow when the New Moon is perigee, and on 10th the perigee moon culminates whilst on 11th it renews itself so lets see if he is right, but I do expect this to hit Scotland to NW and hopefully fizzle out by the time this weather system gets down as far as W Yorks. We can expect some hail, sleet and snow around the UK during this phase
Previous phases of this weather brought strong winds to the UK, extremes of weather around the world and Scotland is usually the target for the worst of the weather for this outlook. Oddly there is a drought and rising temp indicator 4th-5th for regions such as Dublin, and SW areas of UK such as Landsend Pemboke and Caernarvon, but most places should enjoy a dry if windy outlook till 6-7th. Some snow looks to be developing off the far NW area of Scotland and this could move down from NW coast of Scotland and land in the form of
blizzards during this phase, most likely 6- 7th, causing disruption to transport systems, but destructive lowland storms are heralded by 6-7th for many parts of the UK. High speed winds will hit NW UK and western extremes of Wales/England so take care.
5th looks like a mild clear day with fresh air and scattered clouds around. 6th sees an unsettled outlook developing for us with variable temps and some easterlies bringing in potential for some showery conditions, lowering temps before northerlies begin to blow. For us in W Yorks the worst of the winter precipitation arrives by mid day on 7th and looks prolonged lasting into 8th combining with some of the destructive windy storms hitting lowlands.
Generally the weather is less fraught midnight to mid day, but this is a record breaking system coming over so hold onto your hammocks…..
Mists fogs and freezing fogs arrive particularly to east coast of UK from the outset. A cold front skulking down offshore west coast takes it time to move across mainland Britain this phase, with temps becoming very biting as the days go by. Don’t forget to re read my winter intro for more about this time of winter…..
!1th sees a gloomy overcast if not foggy start for us, with clearer conditions developing by mid day when sunshine will brighten the outlook a little, but cold temps around, it may be that the fog I’m seeing is beginning to turn to freezing
12th Is cold but nice during the day with a clear sky by late evening auguring cold temps developing further overnight due to less cloud cover to keep things warm, this can bring in intense cold conditions and frosts as well as icy outlook so take care on roads.
13th could be some winter showers around, localised but I don’t expect them to be prolonged, another fair outlook for the afternoon by 14th after a potential for a showery morning, but the precipitation will be icy and exhilarating rather than oppressive.
15th looks the same as previous days but coldness intensifying, whilst 16th- 18th the weather gets intensely colder but this brings some sunshine along with cloud and frostiness some mists to valleys likely also, 18th potential for showers around evening but these will be fast, perhaps hail sleet type, very cold conditions continue for 18th, but sunshine should prevail during daytime.
18th-27th January 2013
Overview is for cold frosty and snow to the west and very wintry with the second half being even more frosty and icy but some sunshine around. 25th breaks the mould with some dark, dank weather
18th Outlook variable, Snow potential around mid day, cold temps with some sunshine during the day, cloudy late evening possible mist around water areas, temps freezing overnight into 19th
19th Freeze after thaw during mid day very cold temps icy air with gusty breezes.
20th no change
21 Heavy frost, a cold start, milder as sun gets strong by mid day, fogs/ mists around for evening
22nd very cold temps, sunshine around, but northerlies keep things cool
23rd Fine day, strong northerlies, blizzard potential to some high regions
24th Quick showery outbreaks after mid day likely, but another fine winter day with some sunshine, but cold temps.
25th Winter outburst of hail, sleet and snow before sunrise, very cold and frosty, cloudiness and lower temps with broody easterlies with precipitation keeping things cold.
26th-27th A mostly fine winter day outlook for both days…
27th Jan-3rd Feb
This seems to be an eventful weather phase with a lot of changes coming in mid way.
Seismic outlook –southern Ireland potential location.
Some sunshine expected for this phase, where the Full Moon usually augurs dry, exceedingly breathtakingly cold days with frosty nights, if no clouds form. Some mists can form around water places due to the intense cold gathering there and clashing with whatever mildness may have been formed by suns rays.
Some unsettled weather comes over for the milder temperature second half so make the most of the colder first part of the phase! I also expect snow to fall by 1-2nd
27th Some spartan outbreaks could arrive 2pm and 10pm approx, not a lot if any to be honest for us, but apart from these just expect some sun to be around as well as some whistles down the wind
28th North winds blow in higher altitudes whilst a fair start can become cloudy but the afternoon looks sunny with evening skies brighter by 4pm onwards Some rain could be moving southwards late night to turn of next day, but I don’t expect us to get any here.
29th Dry very cold day with nippy temps and gusty weather
30th similar to yesterday but more cloud around with winds getting stronger and gustier. Temps more moderate during the day but the winds keep it low for the evening and some snow warnings could be in place.
31st Extremely strong high speed wind, gales and winter blizzards expected today and tomorrow so take care across high places such as the Pennines and mountain roads. Milder temps can bring in some thawing, but also some snow in with the blizzards. More settled outlook by late at night and snow I forecast could just be frost…don’t think so…
1st Prolonged winter showers expected today, heavier to the south of England, with water levels rising on waterways such as lakes and rivers, slowly moving northwards in flow, some snow sleet in the mix, and we get some of this at our end of the country……
2nd Very unsettled gloomy outlook with rain, snow and sleet expected from early on, could even be a continuance of yesterdays winter downfall……winds still around but subsiding on former strengths. Clouds forming and mists and mizzles feature.
3rd Not a good outlook cloudy and gloomy mists and mizzles but milder winter temps…….read on>>>>>>
Some fantastic weather fun to witness for this phase and I shall be watching carefully to see how well I got a grip on these influences and communicated them to you.
Some very freaky micros stealing across 60 or so miles out to western seaboard of Ireland which means they will slowly move over to our part of the world bringing in some weird and whacky weather to some localities with some higher than normal winter fronts, whist others will be encountering continuing winter conditions.
High humidity expected with fogs and mists affecting sea and air travel especially over the Atlantic, thank goodness the Titanic isn’t setting sail now….
Unusual sea conditions mean sea life is exposed to some abnormal weather, fatal for some, and perhaps we’ll read stories of unusual levels of shoals of dead fish and threat to sea life and aquatic creatures, surfacing around this time of the season, which is what can happen when waters get too cold for them to survive.
Land masses 170east longitude and 50-51 north approx are to be watched for the headlines of unusually freak conditions prevailing.
Migrating warm pockets of weather mingle with some cold conditions, so freeze and thaw combine to make for some treacherous outcomes on transport routes. Landslides, floods and mudslides can be expected to arise adding to the excitement. To be fair if my global peers get their weather forecasts wrong due to some poor forecasting on a persistent basis then I might consider there is such a theory as global warming after all…………………………………….meanwhile they all manage to outforecast the mets delivering long range forecasts, using time honoured traditions used by our ancient mariners and without access to trillions of pounds worth of satellites……
A very mild front off the west of UK, Ireland regions, is difficult to track as tiny micros form and move eastwards, bringing in exceptional moist conditions with fogs, mist, localised thunderstorms and low visibility across much of the UK in the days ahead. Seismicity still high as well for our region of the globe.
3rd…wetter than wet can be and no chance of any drying out as air will be wet even if it does stop raining; high humidity rules. Stormy conditions move east, perhaps drifting southwards. Mists, mizzles and fog with all kinds of weather creatures scurrying around…..Any snow left lying around will thaw leaving floods to river plains and pouring onto transport routes for some regions, but not ours.
If you have booked a flight across the Atlantic for this week….oh dear……A lot of nebulous freaky warm pockets of air shield some from the colder front following on behind from west to east…betya you get delayed…
4th Fog freeze and thaw and freeze and fogs, enormously damp in the atmosphere.
5th Snow potential for high lying areas to west of us– Pennines and Welsh mountains, Cloudy wet day with lowering temps and easterlies keeping things dull and broody…get lots of indoor activities for the children for this phase..
6th sunshine around between cloudy spells, cloudier by evening, milder temps during the day colder, frosty and misty by evening with fogs likely.
7th Moon perigee so bad weather to some parts of globe around this date. Very wet day generally in our part of the world, with much precipitation reaching us by evening. Early on before sunrise a brighter sky for some belies the fogs in some low lying areas. Variable winds around moving clouds along and penetrating the mistiness.
8th Just when you thought Spring might be coming, it gets colder…..don’t throw the winter gloves away just yet! Some turbulence wind wise with whippy westerlies nipping exposed noses and fingers, some hail potential but some sunshine around as well.
9th Snow or frost around, breezy conditions especially at higher altitudes such as the moors and Pennines. Sun with cloud by afternoon very cold by evening. Some strong northerlies set sail to try clear up the mess of previous days………..
10th Clouds around icy, icy, icy, but you might be in one of those little milder micros that still hover around valleys….lucky you. Even colder tomorrow for some but read on>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I’m not ruling out snow from 9-10th overnight and my maps show this potential coming up from SW regions with some electrical outbursts bringing in some localised showers and snow showers. Carry on reading for more fun with the weather>>>>
!0th -17th Feb
There are three lots of data agreeing stormy patterns operative in maps for this phase and it does look likely to be winter snow storms that bring in some extreme winter conditions to contend with from the outset, potentially from 9-10th overnight, with 10th looking decidedly stormy from the start, over to the south west region of England but moving northwards, regions around Landsend and Stornaway affected by this system At the same time a weather pattern far off NW Scotland is likely to drift south westwards over the course of this phase.
This phase is very cold, gets colder with icing over expected and I do expect snow for this forecast, rather than just thick frost………………………hopefully I’m wrong and it will just be cold frosty and icy……………………………My money is on snow…..Patterns in this chart herald heavier precip if not more stormy outlook to Cumbria region. Whenever Mars occupies a certain position in my maps it hits Cumbria. Still, it is a dramatic part of the world and all that weather creates some fabulous scenery up there, now we wouldn’t want that to change would we…..? In fact last year with these chart patterns we got an intense cold front coming in from Russia, and this will repeat the pattern this phase with very icy lows enveloping everyone as it descends from the frozen north…….
10th Some lively north westerlies will accompany snow, some sun amidst cloud today
11th S Easterlies around, also snow bringing, at start of today, with very icy conditions freezing everything over creating some treachery on pathways and routes by night time when low temps very acute.
12th Sun with cloud during the day, temps remain acutely cold, it could be fairer to the north of us, a drier outlook but some flurries around in localised areas brief but to the point by evening.
13th Some brief hail sleet or snow around mid day, still very cold. A finer outlook by the afternoon but by late evening I’m not ruling out another snowy outburst
14th Windy outlook,cloudy with some drying localised sun spells Quick showery flurries, with fogs and mists prevailing late evening.
15th Snow to hit western shores today, cloudy misty start for us, but clearer conditions as day progresses with some exhilarating air.
16th Snow or frost around before sunrise, clouds/mists around 7-9am. Sunny outlook during the daytime with some cloud and gusts around, frosty temps.
17th…drier but still cold……………….
17th – 25th Feb
Temps get icier by 19th, fogs and mists around as a result, precipitation intense to NW UK regions with drains and underwater caverns under assault unable to cope with amounts of water.20th sees heavy precipitation arrive for this phase, with ice crystals forming from 19th in higher atmosphere.
17th frosts around to start the day and some localised mists with potential snow or winter showers mid day, but some sunshine around also during the daytime.
18th Milder outlook, unsettled though with breeziness, some quick showery outbursts in the morning, sun with cloud around, breeding eastward cold flows with snow potential.
19th Very icy conditions could be freezing fogs and mists around, snow showers possible after mid day.
20th Very heavy showers especially heavy to the south by mid day, prolonged and breezes helping move the system northwards.
21st Mists and cloudy start, sun spells by mid day, icy temps by evening with frost, with clearer skies
22nd Sun should be out by mid day some cloud forming by evening, temps still freezing
23rd Winter showers before sunrise clearer outlook by mid day, cloud around by evening, southerlies active.
24th Fog or misty start some snow and showery outbursts could cross eastern areas temps beginning to moderate slightly on freezes of former days.
25th Sun with cloud today…………………read on
25th Feb- 4th March
I’m writing this in November 27th, one day after over 500 flood warnings were given out across Great Britain, worse to the SW areas, when everyone is asking, when will this rain ever stop?
The good news is it will subside to much drier conditions from mid March 2013, no consolation if you are reading this before then, but certainly an end is in sight!
I had to go back to February 7th 2012 to find a similar chart that rules this phase, and although it was much drier then, different astronomical events were factored in at that time, this portends a slightly wetter outcome for us for this phase than that one in February winter 2012.
Some thawing arrives to melt any iced over areas, and mists and fogs can result as moisture gets drawn up from watery regions such as lakes, tarns, rivers and canals. Aquatic life is still under threat with these weather conditions as are sailing craft and water adventurers until after mid March. Underground cavities and drains are also continuing to cause problems as thawing can stretch underground water channels to flood breach levels.
Winds get brisk gusty and westerly by 26th and some extra strong gales and speedy winds are expected for 1st March onwards.
25th Icy, sun with cloud some breeziness around but should be a fair day for outdoors.
26th Potential for sleet snow turning to rain at start of day. Some unsettled conditions as freeze and thaw vie with each other, some mists caused by this. Westerlies strong bringing in drying conditions. More showery outbursts localised at mid day, misty evening means milder temps, but some areas of UK could still remain icy overnight.
27th Cold overnight breeding some frost patches, but cloud developing but expect some brightness by 8 am. A cold frosty outlook but some sun spells during the day.
28th Some quick winter showers localised, hail from start of day. Clear skies by 2 am things stay cold some mists and fog more prevalent to east of us, should be a dry day but cloud around.
1st Sun plus cloud and strong winds gusty, milder temps with westerlies clashing with easterlies, high speed to some regions.
2nd Overcast gloomy outlook, still very windy, rain looks to be in NW and heading over our way so I don’t think it will remain dry.
3rd Some quick hail or sleet showers could break out 1-2 am and more showers by 8pm but the day looks dry and we may get some sunshine with cloud.
4th Gusty weather but nice outlook for some sunshine and good outdoor conditions. Temps should be much milder and as forecast in the overview much thawing will have taken place.
There does look to be some slushy snow around for this phase, and we could see some more white stuff in hail and sleet around 7th and 8th. Overall temps are very mild , but some colder temps arrive for last few days.
Still a lot of a moisture about keeping things damp, but don’t worry this is not going to last and next phase brings a time for drying out and less precipitation. Heavier precipitation expected for outbreaks on 10th and 11th particularly over to the east of us……..
4th As above but some gusty westerlies arriving late at night
5th Gusty outbursts keep things lively, cold start grows milder by sunrise; should be some sunshine around between clouds.
6th A fair day; sunshine around; thawing conditions.
7th Unsettled outlook, often gloomy, showers keep things cool and miserable, some sleet, rain and hail t/out the morning, strong southerlies could bring in some snow and clash with strong easterlies. Winds strong for today.
8th More localised and scattered outbreaks of hail and sleet but sunshine and blue skies to accompany them. Temps cold today, winds strong and very gusty, but at least they blow away any clouds that try to spoil the day.
9th Looks a little misty and cloudy today, some snow clouds look to be coming over but there seems to be a clearer outlook by 11pm
10th Icy start some northerlies keeping temps very cool and it does look like more winter showers arrive before the northerlies get time to clear this system away. Potential for shower and snow attempts again late evening, things look wet and cold at this stage, drizzly mizzly and misty with humidity high……. but skies seem to clear by midnight, but I don’t think the mizzles and drizzles will clear till well into next day……
11th Gloomy start by 2 am, unsettled outlook for today, temps getting colder, winds gusting westerlies, but some southerlies around that may bring in showery conditions, mizzles and drizzles could be continuing from yesterday , cloud with sunshine by sunrise, but not a settled day.
11th-19th March 2013
Looking back, ignoring Lot’s advice to Sarah, In winter 2012 we had two similar charts to this one and both coincided with the most freezing parts of winter, but on this occasion I think we are into a milder than big freeze stage, but we can still expect some similar patterns to emerge in terms of mizzles, drizzles and scattered hail or sleet outbursts, but also some sunshine to let us know what that big yellow thing looks like.
I also looked to find when we might get a heatwave this summer….if we should be so lucky and it does look like one is moving around for 23rd July, just as schools break up which is a change from the usual gloominess that prevails at this time.
However, I digress. Spring doesn’t arrive in full till 23rd March, just after the equinox, when we can finally think about the big outdoors once again and celebrate some nicer conditions.
This phase sees some drier weather trying to break into the northern hemisphere and could thunder in from the outset on 11th with some sizeable earthquakes being set off, and I’m going to be watching the Blackpool area, as well as around Indonesian regions of the globe…I expect some windy weather to prevail but that means faster moving cloud and weather systems leaving clearer outlooks in their wake.
The second half looks drier and less unsettled, northerlies expected for first few days.
11th Whippy westerlies keep things cool and could turn south westerly during the afternoon, some mists and fogs around perhaps more to the eastern parts, with some mizzles around getting heavier at times. Not a nice day expected today…..
12th Very unsettled with lots of static being created, alternate rain and sunshine looks to be breaking out but nothing is for sure with this unsettled outlook. There could even be snow attempts or hail and sleet, northerlies look more active keeping things cool, all weather outcomes will be fast moving so don’t expect any to settle, and potential for some thundery outbreaks as well. An all weather day!
13th Scattery showery outbreaks, localised, from the outset of the day but I do expect some sunshine to break out as well and fingers crossed for a nice sunny day…HURRAH! But nothing lasts that long does it?
14th More unsettled conditions with more thundery outbreaks possible for some regions, maybe not ours, but lots of seismicity and static around so no bets on great weather staying around with this influence….Winds strong to the western quarter, some light sporadic hail or quick showers but also some sunshine around as well. Cloudier even mistier for some localities by evening. Another all weather day.
15th Sunshine with cloud during the day, light showers could still break out, but the temps will be cold so I expect them to be quick hailstorms, gloomy or misty by evening.
16th Temps rise today, but this also warns of mists due to moisture being drawn up by the heat around watery places in valleys. A fair day with some clouding/misting by evening, but I’ve written pretty wild winds around in my notes, so hold on to your hats in case I am very accurate.
17th Cloudy/misty start but cold temps battling milder ones, gusts westerly, clearer sky by late at night, sun with cloud outbreaks during the day.
18th Fair start fine spring day, quick scattered hail outbreaks before sunrise, some gusty weather about though with more clouds by evening, could be cold fogs to some localities
19th Similar to yesterday……………………………………………read on for unsettled conditions for tomorrow.
That completes this outlook for Winter and I will continue with Spring as soon as mid winter solstice is over……so come back for more weather talk then……………