General outlook for Winter season:-Looks like the unusual temperature fluctuations prevalent during 2011 continue throughout this season with sudden lows followed by a rise that brings sunny days and those glorious electric blue skies we have come to enjoy seeing—fantastic for photographers working outdoors.
For 50% of the season we will have some moderate wintery conditions but for 25% we see some extremes of winter causing havoc to regions of the UK.
I expect 8- 21st January to be extremely cold and frosty with perhaps some blizzards, see daily forecasts for this potential. Once again it looks like the South gets the record breaking temps, while 5th January, 10th and 15th February, approximately. depending where you are in the UK, there will be some icy cold conditions to deal with. March looks more likely to be less volatile with milder weather around.
While it was March 2011 that brought us some unsually good weather, and April saw temperatures rising to their highest for 340 years, we can expect a similar pattern to unfold in 2012..but more of this for the Spring forecast later…
Midwinter, Pagan and Christmas Weather
Looking at previous similar phases to this one there is a catalogue of weather events attaching to these celestial/terrestrial outcomes, so I expect this phase to bring in some fair and some foul conditions, with the latter coming in from the outset to many regions of the UK. In the past snowstorms and heavy sleet has arrived with these conditions, though not necessarily in the W Yorks locality. We got the floods to the West UK on October 24th though W Yorks escaped the heavy weather that was due to the Perigean Spring tide moon on 26th of that month.
I should also point out that previous similar epochs to this one brought us the tsunami in the Solomon Islands, an EQ in Kent and in November 2010 heavy blizzards to the UK, I also expect blizzards to some regions of UK for 19th-22nd
Snow looks to already be lying around in eastern areas to us at 18th..precipitaton during this phase would usually be more likely mid day to midnight with some exceptions as written below.
Seismic conditions still create headlines and the SE of England is singled out this time around, but I don’t have time to date it exactly, but 22nd December stands out as likely.
I am only 90% confident of this forecast due to a lot of conflicting weather triggers.
18th Some NWesterlies active icy temps, winter snow showers highly likely with snow bearing cloud coming over but some sunshine around between showers.
19th Fogs/mists around especially in low lying valleys, clearing mid morning but returning late eveinng combining with nebulous breezy twirls.
20th Frosty or foggy outlook. Snow clouds again from very early in the morning could bring more wintery fall during afternoon, clearer skies around mid day some mists fog by evening and S Easterlies flows for us with poorer weather to the W and SW of the country.
21st S Easterlies unsettle the outlook and bring scattered winter showers and more snow for high ground. Frosty start with sudden hail or sleet outbursts from 7-8 am for our region, clearer skies with some sun mid day, and potential for snow flurries mid afternoon and evening coming in from over western regions.
22nd Icy cold outlook brings in some mists and fogs, very unsettled outlook for today for sure, but some sun outbreaks can keep us optimistic for better days ahead. There will be ice around but also some thawing during daytime so take care of slippery conditions when travelling.
22nd for this phase is cold enough to snow but also heralds a few days to follow that are lovely sunny, cold with the bluest of skies…get your camera out…but freezing fog oubreaks could arrive in the evening and overnight with icy or oily conditions on roads and footpaths.
23rd N Westerlies, strong at times, clear away some of gloom and better conditions begin to arrive with sunshine but cold temps during the day. Foggines around overnight on 23/24th
24th Some fair outdoor weather again conditions similar to yesterday but N Westerlies turn into some southerlies making it moist and cooler to North UK, slightly more temperate to S England. Could be a few quick ice sleet or snow outbursts in the afternoon coming in from the West. Looks like we get some sunshine also to herald Christmas Day.
24th December -1st January
This is a New Moon for Christmas day and on such a day we can generally expect the daytime to be fairer with any poorer weather arriving at night.
Everyone wants to know if it will snow on Christmas Day and in October I was in the local BBC radio studios with one of the local TV mets who was asked to say whether snow would arrive on Cjristmas day in Leeds city. No answer arrived, and I had to say we both wouldn’t expect snow in Leeds on Christmas Day as it is an highly unúsual occurrence. However, I also said I hadn’t yet done the charts for this time of year and now that I have……..well I’m not so sure!
Certainly there is some white stuff around from the start and that is likely a leftover from the previous phase. Some snow can be seen to be forming off the coast of SW Iceland on 24th and definitely heading our way, it’s likely to hit NW Scotland by 25th so they are the lucky ones..or not…! It could arrive here by the afternoon on 25th.. so Santa Klaus looks like sending us a nice timely white gift wrapping…or not if I’m way off the mark. I am 100% sure this is snow arriving however, by the time it reaches us in the afternoon the sun could be strong enough to turn it into sleet or rainy weather, so don’t hold your breath….I only give a 95% accuracy rating for my forecast that it will snow in Leeds on Christmas Day, and do wish I could be more certain.
25th Brings potential for snow flurries around 3. 45 am , then again another try around 10 30 am, with cloud/mists in valleys but clearer skies by afternoon with sunshine and some southerly flows around. By around 20:15 it is likely that winter snows hail and sleet showers will be around to West and N West Uk regions
26th Some sun and cloud in the morning, mists in low lying areas, clearer skies by 5-6pm. Southerlies are still active but temps take a plunge when N Easterlies join in the affray and snow likely again today localised and scattered late evening 22:00 approx. Boxing Day can often be a sunny outdoor day and this looks set to follow the pattern..
27th Potential for snow to continue falling into the early hours 1 am onwards this morning leaving a cold frosty outlook to start the day, sunshine likely by late morning with temps less cold than previous day
28th No precipitation expected here, and it should clear to be a sunny day with some N Westerlies around
29th Slightly milder temps but similar to yesterday some S Easterlies which often make the atmosphere a little muggy.
30th Some frostiness with a quick sharp showery micro and localised outlook potential for mid afternoon, cold nippy temps Strong winds, though variable at times, for the next three days mostly NW clearing the atmosphere.
31st Showery from around 4pm with winds as described yesterday intermittent rain throughout is likely.
1st January 2012 More moderate temps with sunshine during the day but windy conditions as described on 30th.