AUTUMN WEATHER FORECAST W YORKS and BEYOND


Autumn Weather 2011

A very cold autumn is augured with record lows, some arriving to bring bone chilling conditions from 13 Nov-13th December, and some temperature extremes from 23rd September.
There can also be some mizzly drizzly spells with mists and freezing fog, and some of these spells arrive for us around mid 10-18th December.
Some fair skies to enjoy however and unusual seasonal dryness continues to keep the global warming demons happy.

Plato Aristotle and their predecessors would smile at the thought of climate change being reversible, or only a 21st century occurrence, by their reckoning and reports it had been around and well noticed millennia before some up and coming young exec ‘’discovered’’ a new way of painting his bandwagon today.

But enough of pre history……..we can expect some unusual autumnal conditions to arrive along with more seismic outbursts, one of which centres around +/_ 4 days 17th December…when we can expect one of the big seismic events of the season.

Snow potential exists around late September and early October with some nasty weather around 24th November (around the globe as well) when the now infamous close sysygy makes its pull on the earth’s atmosphere. For us it brings severe weather trends, blizzards and very heavy precipitation combing with record lows by 25th.

We have an abundance of super moons for everyone to enjoy after the publicity they got this year in connection with EQ activity, one very close super moon occurs 24th November so watch for weather headlines then another 28th September, but the closest of all is the 26th October, so if you feel you’re reading a lot of stormy outlooks for the Autumn you now know why!

I could pick out some good weeks ….but why spoil it for you when you can read the week by week forecast for yourself…….One thing I do expect is some lovely blue skies to enjoy with less gloom around than we normally get in our British autumn.

20th-27th September

Unsettled conditions around, with localised flood potential for SW regions due to very heavy precipitation arriving in a short space of time. Some downpours for Severn area but the duration won’t be long lasting and fair weather spells soon prevail again. T/storm around 22nd/23rd and risk of squalls arriving with winds revving up by 26th-27th
Seismicity centring +/_ 3-4 days 26th September one area of globe I’ll be watching is Sea of Chomsk area, meantime over on our shores high power lines could be affected especially to northern regions..

20th Some sun with cloud spartan showers around 7-8 am heat later in sun, but some cold pockets around with easterly flows brining in unsettled weather Rain overnight to early 21st heavy at times with sudden spartan outbreaks continuing till mid afternoon. Southerlies and cloud with sun in the afternoon, clearer skies by evening….
22nd. Early showers risk 3-4 am with cloud around brisk westerlies brining showers by late evening though skies should be less cloudy by 8-9 pm.
23-24th Can be thundery outbreaks and potential for tornado on 23rd, not in our region though, squalls can be active as temps build on 23rd and northerly winds getting stronger to some regions. More settled on 24th with southerlies around again.
25th Warmer generally but variable temps sunshine with cloud, fine evening.
26th More squally conditions stronger by 27th for some regions, but clearer skies and sunnier weather. Seasonal highs for today and 27th.

27th Sept-4th Oct
Some record breaking and destructive weather to North, seismic events still in headlines at the start of this close sysygy. Changeable weather as summer turns more autumnal, or else misses out this season altogether!

27th Very strong winds prevailing and high speed NW gales in part of UK, temps moderate for the season, cool enough to snow on exposed high ground. Mists cloud, or fog around 2-3 am. Sleet, hail, even snow on high ground 6-10am.
28th Similar conditions to 27th, cooler but clearer skies western areas look misty or foggy, perhaps sea frets likely 2-3 am, clearer in the day but some intermittent winter showers potential 9-11 am and 1-4pm, turning cloudy late evening, strong winds continue..
29th Clearer skies, moderate seasonal temps, potential for quick shower 1-3pm
30th Showers around 1-3pm Heavy downpour expected 8-10pm.
1st -4th should be more settled and calmer after stormy weather, with better outdoor conditions by 1st, and southerly flows for 2nd cool but clearer skies 3rd brings some mists and hazes or cloud early morning, but some sunshine with cloud as day develops, 4th could see some quick showery outbreaks, cool with some sunshine along with westerlies and easterlies clashing.

4th Oct-12th
Some good outdoor weather expected but some rainy conditions as outlined. Mostly dry, sunny with breeziness The record breaking weather looks to be to SW regions of the IUK at the outset of this phase….could be windy conditions that attract attention…..but some unsettled weather for this phase made it difficult to be confident of the forecast at this stage……..

4th Some precipitation moving over the far east from outset, breezy-very windy condition for some regions Cooler outlook but still seasonally average conditions and thundery outbreaks likely to some parts of UK.
5th-7th Sunshine with clouds, noisy winds and sudden spartan showery outbursts especially on 7th
8th Rain bearing cloud formations moderate temps, nebulous breezes and potential for rain/thundery showers by evening
9th Warmth in mid day sun, more sunshine around for us today.
10th A bit unsettled today. Sudden showery outbreaks by evening, some hail and sleet and potential for snow on high ground. Brisk westerlies and sometimes strong along with some southerlies.
11th Strong easterlies blow in some mugginess could even be the white stuff coming over with this unsettled air, early hail sleet outbursts possible from around sunrise Clearer skies after 6pm

12th….read on….

12th-20th October
Cool and breezy phase with some freaky windy weather extremes hitting the headlines, Durham and NW looks vulnerable to this system and headlines could come in from those regions as well as SE.
W Yorks singled out to be battered by strong winds and we could see some wind damage here and overturned vehicles as well. Try not to plan a journey across exposed regions at this stage….Heavy showers expected but weather more settled to second half of this phase..

12th Potential for showery outbreaks 10-11 am less cloudy later in the morning with some hope for sunshine during the day with better skies by night time though some mists/fog in low lying places late evening. Temps seasonally cool but clouds keep conditions muggy
13th Rain around sunrise, intermittent showery weather, heavy but refreshing, temps variable with rain cooling things down but some sun spells bring warmth by mid day and beyond. Winds could begin to rev up today becoming gusty if not violent and destructive….north westerly…over next few days…
14th Fluctuating temps again, with cold from wind and rain passing over UK regions west to east reaching our region from beginning and end of day but some clearer skies possible 10 am – 5pm but we’re likely to be watching some freaky windy weather unfold today and tomorrow. Seismic conditions are also high over the coming days to 23rd…
15th Sun with cloud cool temps but clearer skies, sudden showery outbreaks 5-7pm Lovely overnight clear skies.
16-17th Clearer outlook southerlies bring in more moderate temps, sun with cloud, and risk of sudden showers late afternoon and evening could even be quick thundery outbursts by 17th when northerlies attempt to purge the bad weather.
18th Clearer skies, spartan outbreak attempts early morning 18th but sunny by afternoon, later afternoon outbreak spartan, on 19th. Temps rising moderately
20th Could be showery….read on….

20th-26th October
Some fine outdoor weather, cool but windy with more destructive outbreaks expected for 24-25th onwards so take care if on high ground, near trees or driving across high areas. Any rain attempts will be sudden often spartan in nature ad not long lasting with skies clearing soon afterwards..

20th Temps seasonally warm, quick spartan showery attempts 12-3pm sun with cloud strong S Westerlies and some rain potential late at night.
21st Sun with cloud around mod to brisk lively westerlies.
22nd Still Breezy, sun with cloud today
23rd Cool but clearer skies, some cloud and variable winds continue
24th Rain early from outset of day, speedy NW winds, clear clouds away during the day
25th Sunny day, cool but strong if not violent winds NW and record breaking around this date…
26th Some static outbursts from midnight to early morning, these accompany seasonal warming with likelihood of heavy levels falling. Winds look set to continue but be less volatile. Outlook is stormy, clearing as day grows older when the system moves to the far east of UK Not a nice day….Potential for snow cloud formation but also some extreme temps recorded for today…. weird weather outlook!

26th Oct-2nd November
Winter makes its presence felt with cold temps and icy conditions by 2nd. Less eventful wind wise though some breezy conditions around at start and end of phase with potential t/storm 31st. 29th-30th seem the best days of this phase in UK

27th Mists fogs cloud likely early morning winter showers, heavy at times. Quick outbursts 4-6pm clearer outlook from lat evening though more precip expected after midnight
28th Early mists fog cloud around could clear later, quick winter showers with high levels of precipitation expected between 4-6pm
29-30th Seem better days with sunshine expected along with drier conditions…westerlies blowing things dry but on 30th
winter showers again 6-9pm,
31st Could be thundery at break of day with prolonged heavy rain but clearing as day progresses.
1st Showers from early 2-3 am, rainy or cloudy sunrise give way to sun spells later in day with nebulous breezes blowing
2nd Quick heavy showers expected. Unsettled system flowing our way could even be snow on high ground Very cold conditions but some sunny outbursts as well to ward off the cold. Breeziness prevails…..

2nd-10th November
Weather system hitting N and W Scotland from first two days of this phase and we can expect unsettled weather with heavy precipitation at times along with thundery outbreaks for some regions….again! Might be wrong….
2nd as above
3rd Intermittent sudden showers potential for snow for exposed places, but we get some sunshine along with icy pockets
4th Misty or cloudy start clearing later in the day still very cold with risk of winter showers
5th Seasonal lows arriving, intermittent showery periods
6th Very heavy precipitation expected, icy cold, late at night winter showers arriving…
7th Mists mizzle and drizzle travels eastwards, cloudy day
8th-10th Strong risk of very heavy downpours, thunderstorms for some localities with a system moving around UK from 8th, extremely icy conditions and winter showers could bring snow for us by 9th. I expect headline making weather for this event, could be SE winds bringing in snow blizzards and other nasty weather conditions that creates problems….

10th-18th November
Outlook is windy again but the extra icy Siberian lows arrive from now on into December…….Snow around from outset of this phase…

A quick tour for this phase gives icy conditions strong windy weather with wet spells with southern half of England getting the worst of the conditions. Snow sleet and winter showers along with westerlies expected for 11th before sunrise, fairer outlook 12-14th, but some gusty westerlies around 13th hail showers around. and freezing conditions.
15th Looks stormy but milder temps and more winter showers continuing into early 16th with tiny let up in iciness, Strong gusty westerlies from 17th very icy conditions from 18th with cold making record levels for headlines no doubt for South UK for this phase……Note that predominantly freezing conditions rule this phase……

18th-25th November
Another Supermoon period extremely close with EQ potential on 24th so an eventful time on the weather globe…… I expect heavy levels of precipitation in a short space of time and flood for some regions of the UK, we can also expect some sunshine along with the showers though so not all is lost….22nd is a very unsettled day and heralds bad conditions….but some of the worst of the weather is expected by 20th and severe conditions raging 22 -24th Flash flood likely with drains overflowing and under stress….don’t go potholing as underground caverns will be treacherous at this time…..but Caves and falls at Ingleborough should look stupendous with this amount of rain gushing out of them….. Some sunshine between showers to start, but gets worse as days ear on for this phase….some real weather spectacles around…
18th Icy cold frost snow still on ground with risk of more showers mid day and evening some sun spells during the day could be freezing fogs and mists around by evening….EQ alert for next few days
19th Sunshine and showers mostly, slightly milder temps (but still cold) to allow slight thaw N W prevail but some south and easterly flows can add to the mix auguring unsettled conditions to arrive.
20th EQ seimicity still active some sunny spells today temps less sever, winter showers 2-4am and later at night from 23;00 when they can be prolonged
22nd Winter showers around from last night into early morning becoming intermittent. Strong winds around if not blizzards to some regions and these can be prevalent over net few days…. be on a weather alert fro this weather before making unnecessary journeys…
23rd Very heavy downpours, this looks like more snow, from early morning and prolonged, moving around UK bringing flash floods that hit the headlines due to overworked drains and overflow basins…..Expect a lot of precip in a short space of time to cause these floods…
25th Freezing again and some record lows achieved in parts of UK so roads will be icy and dangerous take care…..

25th Nov -2nd December
Some regions may see prolonged spells of precipitation as NW England and Scotland experienced the last time we had these weather factors from 17th May this year, when high speed gales raged as well…….I only have 80% confidence in this phase forecast due to wind charts not playing ball with moisture charts!

25th Freezing conditions with record lows could be too cold to rain but expect frosty ground with some sun spells for daytime. 26th Cold, frosty risk of icy showers in the afternoon but generally some sun spells as well. Could be blustery breezes for us as well
27th Some winter showers arrive from midnight to early this morning especially to western regions Freezing but dry and sunny day some icy air flows
28th Similar to yesterday but risk of icy showers late evening frosty conditions prevail overall.
29th Risk of showers before sunrise sunshine during the day
30th Misty or cloudy start risk of drizzle spells during day clearing by evening temps less severe but still icy
1st Daytime seems sunshine with cloud but evening there is likelihood of showery outbreaks heavy at times
2nd Returns to cold icy and quite frankly brass monkeys should beware….

2nd December-10th
Oh what a shame it isn’t May 2010 when these significations brought fab hot weather….dream on……..if you thought the weather was cold ……then you need to wise up to the Siberian conditions I expect to come our way….but my sheepskin boots should now come in handy….My note say ARCTIC for 5th….
Brief tour expect snow…I do…..At outset snow already lying on ground frost for some regions if not snow, and this will be added to significantly for 4th and 7th when there looks to be more risk of heavy snowfall……
2nd Nice day after snow/frost early morning
3rd Too cold for anything should be sunny though
4th Heavy snow expected
5th Arctic conditions reign
6th Bright day freezing cold
7th Frosty or snowy start, heavy snow likely by mid morning, some easterlies kicking in
Snow looks to be moving west from 7th some northerlies add to cold on 9th more snow and icy conditions possible on 10th……..wrap up warm, buy a sled, get the ice skates out and enjoy the outdoor life………some lovely skies around in spite of the ice and snow…..

10-18th December
Unsettled conditions again fogs and mist around probably freezing…some frost and snow still lying around from last phase. 10th could be too cold for the snow to arrive as forecast……..but if it does then mid day is likely time to expect it. Temps plunge even further so wrap up warmly

11th Some freezing mists and fog potential across valleys clearer skies by evening but icy weather, snow looks to be arriving to North of Scotland coming down from the Arctic area….Bbbrrrrr….. and is travelling south
12th Cold, mist even drizzle and mizzle frost or snow late at night with transport routes struggling to do their job especially to NW Scotland
13th Icy hail sleet and rain arrive by late morning looks like blizzards are likely for some UK regions….North and West most likely to be affected……..Wet day generally potential for more snow attempts late afternoon, but clearer skies by late evening but this means cold and icy conditions on the road….
14th Clearer skies, sunny some southerlies bringing in changing conditions turning south early later gusty by 15th
15th Intermittent outbreaks after a frosty start, short showery spells coming in with S Easterlies some thawing likely late afternoon but temps create potential for more snow to arrive….cold enough to snow…..
16th Looks like more snow for 17 35 temps icy though but right for snow late afternoon eve and winds turn South westerly strong at times with potential for more blizzards
17th continues unsettled showery from 1-3 am and sunny spells later freezing cold winds northerly and nippy
18th Winter showers after 4 am more travel disruptions expected………………

Read https://amazingweather.wordpress.com for longer range predictions/weather forecasts for AUTUMN 2011 or go to http://ukweatherbrief.wordpress.com
Read http://learnastrometeorology.wordpress.com to find out some interesting information about weather forecasting
visit … http://www.starsite.org.uk/1491.html for more discussion astro meteorology and access FREE lessons in weather forecasting and lots of free book downloads with much more..

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